Championship
Sheffield United vs Birmingham Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.4% for over 2.5 to 18.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.0%. Between the two sides, Birmingham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.6%, with a level count at 20.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.6% | 66.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.7% | 81.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.9%
21.2%
65.4%
38.7%
Card handicap
| Sheffield United line | Sheffield United | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.7% | 87.3% |
| -0.5 | 27.2% | 72.8% |
| +0.5 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| +1.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.0% | 71.0% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United | F Hallam | 4 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Sheffield United | J Busby | 4 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Sheffield United | L Smith | 4 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Birmingham | A Herczeg | 3 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| Birmingham | A Kitchen | 3 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| Birmingham | J Busby | 3 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
This season (2025/26)
1.8Sheffield United cards per game10.4Sheffield United fouls per game1.9Birmingham cards per game11.7Birmingham fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sheffield United vs Birmingham. Slightly more cards are projected for Birmingham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.0%Over 3.5 cards28.3%Any red card46.9%Sheffield United over 1.5 cards65.4%Birmingham over 1.5 cards43.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Sheffield United over 1.5 cards sits at 46.9% and Birmingham at 65.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 28.3% (Sheffield United 14.4%, Birmingham 16.3%). Sheffield United’s most frequent referee this season, F Hallam, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 4 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Sheffield United have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Birmingham 1.9.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sheffield United vs Birmingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.0% for Sheffield United vs Birmingham.
Will there be a red card in Sheffield United vs Birmingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 28.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sheffield United vs Birmingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Birmingham to pick up more cards at 52.6%, with a level count at 20.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.