Bundesliga
Schalke 04 vs 
Bayern Munich Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 60.3% and it missed (19 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 75.4% and it missed (6 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 60.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.6% for over 22.5 to 36.8% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.3%. On the shot count, Schalke 04 are the model’s pick to have more shots at 56.9%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 36.8% | 63.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.8%
60.4%
44.3%
63.9%
46.4%
30.6%
Shot handicap
| Schalke 04 line | Schalke 04 | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| -2.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| -0.5 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| +0.5 | 62.8% | 37.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 53.6% | 46.4% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Schalke 04.
In-depth analysis
60.3%Over 24.5 shots60.4%Schalke 04 over 12.5 shots46.4%Bayern Munich over 12.5 shots75.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Schalke 04 over 12.5 shots sits at 60.4% and Bayern Munich at 46.4%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 60.3% for Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich.
Which team will have more shots in Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated Schalke 04 to take more shots at 56.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.