Hoffenheim vs Dortmund: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Bundesliga

Hoffenheim

WDWLL

Full time2-3Sat, 5 Sep 202614:30UK25°C · Cloudy

Dortmund

WLWWW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Draw or Dortmund

64%

Both teams to score

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Hoffenheim 2-3 Dortmund

✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Dortmund at 43.4%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 61.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 83.2% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 60.6% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 63.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 81.9% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.2% and it landed (13 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 51.8% and it missed (6 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 57.8% and it landed (29 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 69.3% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 80.7% and it landed.

Match data	Hoffenheim	Dortmund
Goals, 1st half	1	0
Goals, 2nd half	1	3
Shots	18	11
Shots, 1st half	9	4
Shots, 2nd half	10	7
Shots on target	6	4
Corners	10	3
Yellow cards	4	2
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	13	7
Expected goals (xG)	2.17	2.02

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

DortmundWin probability

43.4%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals83.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.20

Draw or Dortmund68.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.47

Both teams to score63.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Dortmund: 43% is the model's line for this Bundesliga meeting on 5 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 64%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Hoffenheim, 1 draws and 2 for Dortmund, averaging 3.4 goals a game. • Form guide over the last six: Hoffenheim W3 D1 L2, Dortmund W4 D0 L2. For shots markets, Adam Hlozek is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Dortmund win43.4%@ 2.30

Over 10.5 corners38.8%@ 2.58

Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals61.6%@ 1.62

Over 8.5 corners59.7%@ 1.68

Hoffenheim or draw56.6%@ 1.77

Random finds

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.13

1-2 correct score8.9%@ 11.27

2-1 correct score7.7%@ 12.97

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Hoffenheim

31.9%

Draw

24.7%

Dortmund

43.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.583.1%

High probability

Over 2.561.6%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.5%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.7%

Good chance

Over 9.549.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.7%

Low chance

Most cornersHoffenheim59.1%Dortmund30.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.557.8%

Good chance

Over 26.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.534.3%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.1%2.561.6%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 2.561.6%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

HoffenheimWDWLL

DortmundWLWWW

Last 5 meetings: Hoffenheim 2 · 1 draws · Dortmund 2 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-04-18Hoffenheim 2-1 Dortmund

2025-12-07Dortmund 2-0 Hoffenheim

2025-04-26Hoffenheim 2-3 Dortmund

2024-12-15Dortmund 1-1 Hoffenheim

2024-02-25Dortmund 2-3 Hoffenheim

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Hoffenheim

Dortmund

League position#12 of 18#5 of 18

Record W-D-L0-0-11-0-0

Current streakL1W1

Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Adam HlozekHoffenheim · key player

To score22.1%

@ 4.52

1+ on target52.8%

@ 1.89

2+ shots55.0%

@ 1.82

Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.38

Serhou GuirassyDortmund · key player

To score46.0%

@ 2.17

1+ on target71.1%

@ 1.41

2+ shots76.3%

@ 1.31

Shots/90 3.14SoT/90 1.41Goals/90 0.7

Max MoerstedtHoffenheim · in form

To score5.5%

@ 18.18

1+ on target24.8%

@ 4.03

2+ shots11.2%

@ 8.93

Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.22

Fabio SilvaDortmund · in form

To score21.7%

@ 4.61

1+ on target45.3%

@ 2.21

2+ shots40.0%

@ 2.50

Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.43

Andrej KramaricHoffenheim · in form

To score27.5%

@ 3.64

1+ on target55.8%

@ 1.79

2+ shots58.1%

@ 1.72

Shots/90 2.37SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.39

Maximilian BeierDortmund · in form

To score24.3%

@ 4.12

1+ on target41.9%

@ 2.39

2+ shots48.2%

@ 2.07

Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 0.8Goals/90 0.41

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Hoffenheim win3.03

Draw4.11

Dortmund win2.34

Both teams to score1.57

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.20

Over 2.5 goals1.62

Over 3.5 goals2.54

Over 4.5 goals4.62

Hoffenheim most3.03

Dortmund most2.34

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36

Over 8.5 corners1.61

Over 9.5 corners1.99

Over 10.5 corners2.59

Hoffenheim most1.69

Dortmund most3.27

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44

Over 3.5 cards2.07

Over 4.5 cards3.44

Over 5.5 cards6.49

Hoffenheim most2.64

Dortmund most2.50

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.26

Over 7.5 SoT1.44

Over 8.5 SoT1.73

Over 9.5 SoT2.17

Hoffenheim most1.82

Dortmund most2.99

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.44

Over 24.5 shots1.73

Over 26.5 shots2.19

Over 28.5 shots2.92

Hoffenheim most1.60

Dortmund most3.14

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.80

Over 22.5 fouls2.29

Over 24.5 fouls3.07

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	79.7%	Over 7.5	69.3%	Over 8.5	57.8%	Over 9.5	46.1%
Most: Hoffenheim	55.0%	Most: Dortmund	33.4%
Hoffenheim Over 4.2	56.7%	Dortmund Over 4.2	41.0%

Cards

Over 2.5	69.5%	Over 3.5	48.2%	Over 4.5	29.1%
Most: Hoffenheim	38.0%	Most: Dortmund	40.1%
Hoffenheim Over 1.8	52.7%	Dortmund Over 1.8	54.3%

Hoffenheim: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Adam Hlozek	2.8	1.14	0.38	52.8%	55.0%	22.1%
Max Moerstedt	2.2	1.1	0.22	24.8%	11.2%	5.5%
Andrej Kramaric	2.37	0.99	0.39	55.8%	58.1%	27.5%
Tim Lemperle	2.45	0.95	0.39	52.2%	56.7%	26.1%
Adam Daghim	1.85	0.72	0.18	34.0%	28.9%	9.9%

Dortmund: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Serhou Guirassy	3.14	1.41	0.7	71.1%	76.3%	46.0%
Fabio Silva	2.42	1.06	0.43	45.3%	40.0%	21.7%
Maximilian Beier	2.39	0.8	0.41	41.9%	48.2%	24.3%
Ethan Nwaneri	2.45	0.76	0.38	25.0%	23.7%	13.4%
Felix Nmecha	1.27	0.33	0.14	22.5%	25.8%	10.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Hoffenheim clean sheet	18.2%
Dortmund clean sheet	22.7%
Hoffenheim win to nil	13.5%
Dortmund win to nil	18.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	33.0%	draw	24.3%	away	42.7%

double_chance

1X	57.3%	12	75.7%	X2	67.0%

dnb

home	43.6%	away	56.4%

btts

yes	63.5%	no	36.5%

clean_sheet

home	18.3%	away	22.9%

win_to_nil

home	13.6%	away	18.2%

winning_margin

home_by_1	17.3%	home_by_2	9.8%	home_by_3plus	5.9%
away_by_1	20.0%	away_by_2	13.0%	away_by_3plus	9.7%

correct_score

0-0	4.7%	0-1	6.5%	0-2	6.0%
0-3	3.4%	0-4	1.5%	0-5	0.5%
1-0	5.6%	1-1	11.0%	1-2	8.9%
1-3	5.1%	1-4	2.2%	1-5	0.8%
2-0	4.6%	2-1	7.7%	2-2	6.5%
2-3	3.7%	2-4	1.6%	2-5	0.5%
3-0	2.3%	3-1	3.8%	3-2	3.2%
3-3	1.8%	3-4	0.8%	3-5	0.3%
4-0	0.8%	4-1	1.4%	4-2	1.2%
4-3	0.7%	4-4	0.3%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.4%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.0%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.3%	under_0.5	4.7%	over_1.5	83.2%
under_1.5	16.9%	over_2.5	61.6%	under_2.5	38.4%
over_3.5	39.4%	under_3.5	60.6%	over_4.5	21.7%
under_4.5	78.4%	over_5.5	10.4%	under_5.5	89.6%

odd_even

odd	48.9%	even	51.1%

team_home

over_0.5	77.1%	under_0.5	22.9%	over_1.5	43.4%
under_1.5	56.6%	over_2.5	18.5%	under_2.5	81.5%

team_away

over_0.5	81.7%	under_0.5	18.3%	over_1.5	50.8%
under_1.5	49.2%	over_2.5	24.5%	under_2.5	75.5%

most

home	33.0%	draw	24.3%	away	42.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	5.9%	away_+2.5	94.1%	home_-1.5	15.7%
away_+1.5	84.3%	home_-0.5	33.0%	away_+0.5	67.0%
home_+0.5	57.3%	away_-0.5	42.7%	home_+1.5	77.3%
away_-1.5	22.7%	home_+2.5	90.3%	away_-2.5	9.7%

total_exact

exact_0	4.7%	exact_1	12.2%	exact_2	21.5%
exact_3	22.3%	exact_4	17.7%	exact_5	11.3%
exact_6	6.0%	exact_7plus	4.4%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	27.0%	draw	35.5%	away	37.5%

total

over_0.5	79.3%	under_0.5	20.8%	over_1.5	46.6%
under_1.5	53.4%	over_2.5	21.0%	under_2.5	79.1%

btts

yes	29.3%	no	70.7%

total_exact

exact_0	20.8%	exact_1	32.6%	exact_2	25.7%
exact_3	13.5%	exact_4plus	7.5%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	25.3%	draw	33.4%	away	41.3%

total

over_0.5	81.9%	under_0.5	18.1%	over_1.5	50.9%
under_1.5	49.1%	over_2.5	24.5%	under_2.5	75.5%

btts

yes	32.1%	no	67.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	18.0%	H/D	5.6%	H/A	3.4%
D/H	9.0%	D/D	11.9%	D/A	14.6%
A/H	1.9%	A/D	5.0%	A/A	30.6%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	73.7%	under_7.5	26.3%	over_8.5	62.3%
under_8.5	37.7%	over_9.5	50.2%	under_9.5	49.8%
over_10.5	38.6%	under_10.5	61.4%	over_11.5	28.2%
under_11.5	71.8%	over_12.5	19.7%	under_12.5	80.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	76.4%	under_3.5	23.6%	over_4.5	62.0%
under_4.5	38.0%	over_5.5	47.0%	under_5.5	53.0%

team_away

over_3.5	57.3%	under_3.5	42.7%	over_4.5	40.1%
under_4.5	59.9%	over_5.5	25.7%	under_5.5	74.3%

most

home	59.2%	draw	10.2%	away	30.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.1%	away_+3.5	71.9%	home_-1.5	48.4%
away_+1.5	51.6%	home_-0.5	59.2%	away_+0.5	40.8%
home_+0.5	69.4%	away_-0.5	30.6%	home_+1.5	78.3%
away_-1.5	21.7%	home_+3.5	90.7%	away_-3.5	9.3%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	69.5%	under_22.5	30.5%	over_24.5	57.8%
under_24.5	42.2%	over_26.5	45.7%	under_26.5	54.3%
over_28.5	34.3%	under_28.5	65.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	77.4%	under_10.5	22.7%	over_12.5	62.4%
under_12.5	37.6%	over_14.5	46.5%	under_14.5	53.5%

team_away

over_10.5	58.1%	under_10.5	41.9%	over_12.5	40.2%
under_12.5	59.8%	over_14.5	25.2%	under_14.5	74.8%

most

home	62.5%	draw	5.7%	away	31.8%

handicap

home_-4.5	38.4%	away_+4.5	61.6%	home_-2.5	50.5%
away_+2.5	49.5%	home_-0.5	62.5%	away_+0.5	37.5%
home_+0.5	68.2%	away_-0.5	31.8%	home_+2.5	78.2%
away_-2.5	21.8%	home_+4.5	86.1%	away_-4.5	13.9%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	79.7%	under_6.5	20.3%	over_7.5	69.3%
under_7.5	30.7%	over_8.5	57.8%	under_8.5	42.3%
over_9.5	46.1%	under_9.5	53.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	72.4%	under_3.5	27.6%	over_4.5	56.7%
under_4.5	43.3%	over_5.5	41.2%	under_5.5	58.8%

team_away

over_3.5	58.7%	under_3.5	41.3%	over_4.5	41.1%
under_4.5	59.0%	over_5.5	26.3%	under_5.5	73.7%

most

home	55.0%	draw	11.6%	away	33.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	31.8%	away_+2.5	68.2%	home_-0.5	55.0%
away_+0.5	45.0%	home_+0.5	66.6%	away_-0.5	33.4%
home_+2.5	84.9%	away_-2.5	15.2%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	69.5%	under_2.5	30.5%	over_3.5	48.2%
under_3.5	51.8%	over_4.5	29.1%	under_4.5	70.9%
over_5.5	15.4%	under_5.5	84.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	52.7%	under_1.5	47.3%	over_2.5	26.1%
under_2.5	73.9%

team_away

over_1.5	54.3%	under_1.5	45.7%	over_2.5	27.5%
under_2.5	72.5%

most

home	38.0%	draw	22.0%	away	40.1%

handicap

home_-1.5	19.7%	away_+1.5	80.4%	home_-0.5	38.0%
away_+0.5	62.1%	home_+0.5	59.9%	away_-0.5	40.1%
home_+1.5	78.8%	away_-1.5	21.2%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	55.7%	under_20.5	44.3%	over_22.5	43.6%
under_22.5	56.4%	over_24.5	32.6%	under_24.5	67.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	62.6%	under_9.5	37.4%	over_11.5	45.8%
under_11.5	54.2%	over_13.5	31.0%	under_13.5	69.1%

team_away

over_9.5	54.1%	under_9.5	45.9%	over_11.5	37.0%
under_11.5	63.0%	over_13.5	23.2%	under_13.5	76.8%

most

home	53.2%	draw	6.2%	away	40.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	34.9%	away_+3.5	65.1%	home_-0.5	53.2%
away_+0.5	46.9%	home_+2.5	70.8%	away_-2.5	29.2%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	19.3%	no	80.7%

home

yes	8.2%	no	91.8%

away

yes	12.1%	no	87.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Hoffenheim predictions · Dortmund predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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