La Liga
Santander vs 
Villarreal Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 11.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 55.3% for over 2.5 and 79.0% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
| 2-1 | 6.8% |
| 1-0 | 6.2% |
| 0-0 | 6.1% |
| 2-2 | 5.7% |
Score probability grid
| Santander \ Villarreal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 4 | · | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Santander goals, columns = Villarreal. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 55.3% for three or more goals and 79.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Villarreal favoured at 49.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Santander vs Villarreal?
The model's most likely scoreline for Santander vs Villarreal is 1-1 at 11.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More La Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.