Santander vs Villarreal prediction & probabilities (2026-08-16)

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Santander vs Villarreal: model prediction

La Liga
Santander
Sun, 16 Aug 202606:00UK
Villarreal

WDLLW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Draw or Villarreal

58%

Both teams to score

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
VillarrealWin probability
49.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Draw or Villarreal73.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Both teams to score57.7%Good chancePays @ 1.73

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Villarreal at 49% for 16 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. As a promoted side, Santander carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.3%@ 2.21
Over 10.5 corners35.1%@ 2.85
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners56.3%@ 1.78
Over 2.5 goals55.3%@ 1.81
Santander or draw50.8%@ 1.97
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.46
1-2 correct score9.5%@ 10.56
0-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.43

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Santander

26.5%

Draw

24.3%

Villarreal

49.2%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.0%

High probability

Over 2.555.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.3%

Good chance

Over 9.545.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.3%

Low chance

Most cornersSantander 59.4% · Villarreal 29.8%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.0%2.555.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.0%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

VillarrealWDLLW

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Georges MikautadzeVillarreal · key player
To score32.4%

@ 3.09

1+ on target60.8%

@ 1.64

2+ shots59.5%

@ 1.68

Shots/90 2.76SoT/90 1.29Goals/90 0.54
Gerard MorenoVillarreal · in form
To score28.5%

@ 3.51

1+ on target51.2%

@ 1.95

2+ shots49.6%

@ 2.02

Shots/90 2.83SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.57
Ayoze PérezVillarreal · in form
To score35.0%

@ 2.86

1+ on target52.7%

@ 1.90

2+ shots53.4%

@ 1.87

Shots/90 2.87SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.69

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Santander win3.72
Draw3.98
Villarreal win2.08
Both teams to score1.73

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.81
Over 3.5 goals3.03
Santander most3.72
Villarreal most2.08

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.42
Over 8.5 corners1.71
Over 9.5 corners2.17
Over 10.5 corners2.91
Santander most1.68
Villarreal most3.34

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.25
Over 3.5 cards1.60
Over 4.5 cards2.29
Over 5.5 cards3.66
Santander most2.76
Villarreal most2.25

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.24
Over 9.5 SoT3.06
Santander most1.67
Villarreal most3.58

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.12
Over 26.5 shots2.85
Over 28.5 shots4.08
Santander most1.49
Villarreal most3.66

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.60
Over 24.5 fouls2.07
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.4% Over 7.5 57.7% Over 8.5 44.7% Over 9.5 32.7%
Most: Santander 59.8% Most: Villarreal 27.9%
Santander Over 4.2 51.1% Villarreal Over 4.2 28.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 80.1% Over 3.5 62.4% Over 4.5 43.6%
Most: Santander 36.3% Most: Villarreal 44.4%
Santander Over 1.8 60.3% Villarreal Over 1.8 65.7%

Villarreal: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Georges Mikautadze 2.76 1.29 0.54 60.8% 59.5% 32.4%
Gerard Moreno 2.83 1.22 0.57 51.2% 49.6% 28.5%
Ayoze Pérez 2.87 1.2 0.69 52.7% 53.4% 35.0%
Nicolas Pepe 2.35 1.02 0.27 50.0% 47.5% 16.8%
Thierno Barry 2.83 0.97 0.43 51.1% 61.7% 27.2%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 26.9% draw 25.1% away 48.0%
double_chance
1X 52.0% 12 74.9% X2 73.1%
dnb
home 35.9% away 64.1%
btts
yes 57.7% no 42.3%
clean_sheet
home 18.6% away 29.8%
win_to_nil
home 12.5% away 23.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 15.7% home_by_2 7.6% home_by_3plus 3.6%
away_by_1 22.1% away_by_2 14.7% away_by_3plus 11.2%
correct_score
0-0 6.1% 0-1 8.8% 0-2 7.8%
0-3 4.4% 0-4 1.9% 0-5 0.6%
1-0 6.2% 1-1 11.8% 1-2 9.5%
1-3 5.3% 1-4 2.3% 1-5 0.8%
2-0 4.1% 2-1 6.8% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 3.2% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 1.6% 3-1 2.7% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.8% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.9% under_0.5 6.1% over_1.5 79.0%
under_1.5 21.0% over_2.5 55.3% under_2.5 44.7%
over_3.5 33.0% under_3.5 67.0% over_4.5 16.8%
under_4.5 83.2% over_5.5 7.4% under_5.5 92.6%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 70.2% under_0.5 29.8% over_1.5 34.1%
under_1.5 65.9% over_2.5 12.3% under_2.5 87.8%
team_away
over_0.5 81.4% under_0.5 18.6% over_1.5 50.2%
under_1.5 49.8% over_2.5 24.0% under_2.5 76.0%
most
home 26.9% draw 25.1% away 48.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.6% away_+2.5 96.4% home_-1.5 11.2%
away_+1.5 88.8% home_-0.5 26.9% away_+0.5 73.1%
home_+0.5 52.0% away_-0.5 48.0% home_+1.5 74.1%
away_-1.5 25.9% home_+2.5 88.8% away_-2.5 11.2%
total_exact
exact_0 6.1% exact_1 14.9% exact_2 23.7%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.2% exact_5 9.4%
exact_6 4.5% exact_7plus 2.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.5% draw 36.7% away 34.8%
total
over_0.5 77.6% under_0.5 22.4% over_1.5 44.1%
under_1.5 55.9% over_2.5 19.0% under_2.5 81.0%
btts
yes 27.6% no 72.4%
total_exact
exact_0 22.4% exact_1 33.5% exact_2 25.1%
exact_3 12.5% exact_4plus 6.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.9% draw 36.3% away 28.8%
total
over_0.5 78.2% under_0.5 21.8% over_1.5 45.0%
under_1.5 55.1% over_2.5 19.7% under_2.5 80.3%
btts
yes 28.3% no 71.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.1% H/D 4.6% H/A 1.8%
D/H 12.8% D/D 13.4% D/A 10.6%
A/H 2.9% A/D 6.3% A/A 25.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.5% under_7.5 29.5% over_8.5 58.4%
under_8.5 41.6% over_9.5 46.0% under_9.5 54.0%
over_10.5 34.4% under_10.5 65.6% over_11.5 24.5%
under_11.5 75.5% over_12.5 16.6% under_12.5 83.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.9% under_3.5 25.1% over_4.5 59.9%
under_4.5 40.2% over_5.5 44.5% under_5.5 55.5%
team_away
over_3.5 54.5% under_3.5 45.5% over_4.5 37.0%
under_4.5 63.0% over_5.5 22.9% under_5.5 77.1%
most
home 59.6% draw 10.5% away 29.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.5% home_-1.5 48.4%
away_+1.5 51.6% home_-0.5 59.6% away_+0.5 40.4%
home_+0.5 70.1% away_-0.5 29.9% home_+1.5 79.1%
away_-1.5 20.8% home_+3.5 91.5% away_-3.5 8.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.1% under_22.5 39.9% over_24.5 47.3%
under_24.5 52.7% over_26.5 35.1% under_26.5 64.9%
over_28.5 24.5% under_28.5 75.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.5% under_10.5 25.5% over_12.5 58.4%
under_12.5 41.6% over_14.5 41.8% under_14.5 58.2%
team_away
over_10.5 47.3% under_10.5 52.7% over_12.5 29.5%
under_12.5 70.5% over_14.5 16.4% under_14.5 83.6%
most
home 67.0% draw 5.7% away 27.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.6% away_+4.5 58.4% home_-2.5 54.5%
away_+2.5 45.5% home_-0.5 67.0% away_+0.5 33.0%
home_+0.5 72.7% away_-0.5 27.3% home_+2.5 82.4%
away_-2.5 17.6% home_+4.5 89.5% away_-4.5 10.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.4% under_6.5 29.6% over_7.5 57.7%
under_7.5 42.4% over_8.5 44.7% under_8.5 55.3%
over_9.5 32.7% under_9.5 67.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 51.1%
under_4.5 48.9% over_5.5 35.0% under_5.5 65.0%
team_away
over_3.5 45.9% under_3.5 54.1% over_4.5 28.1%
under_4.5 71.9% over_5.5 15.5% under_5.5 84.5%
most
home 59.8% draw 12.3% away 28.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.8% away_+2.5 66.2% home_-0.5 59.8%
away_+0.5 40.2% home_+0.5 72.1% away_-0.5 28.0%
home_+2.5 89.5% away_-2.5 10.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 80.1% under_2.5 20.0% over_3.5 62.4%
under_3.5 37.6% over_4.5 43.6% under_4.5 56.4%
over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.3% under_1.5 39.7% over_2.5 33.9%
under_2.5 66.1%
team_away
over_1.5 65.7% under_1.5 34.3% over_2.5 39.8%
under_2.5 60.2%
most
home 36.3% draw 19.4% away 44.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.1% away_+1.5 79.9% home_-0.5 36.3%
away_+0.5 63.7% home_+0.5 55.6% away_-0.5 44.4%
home_+1.5 73.5% away_-1.5 26.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 75.3% under_20.5 24.8% over_22.5 62.4%
under_22.5 37.6% over_24.5 48.4% under_24.5 51.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 73.9% under_9.5 26.1% over_11.5 54.7%
under_11.5 45.3% over_13.5 35.5% under_13.5 64.5%
team_away
over_9.5 74.4% under_9.5 25.6% over_11.5 55.3%
under_11.5 44.7% over_13.5 36.1% under_13.5 63.9%
most
home 46.0% draw 7.1% away 46.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.4% away_+3.5 73.6% home_-0.5 46.0%
away_+0.5 54.0% home_+2.5 66.7% away_-2.5 33.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.3% no 84.7%
home
yes 7.6% no 92.4%
away
yes 8.3% no 91.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Santander predictions · Villarreal predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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