League TwoSalford vs Newport County Correct Score
Result
Final score 2-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 9.7%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 11.9% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Salford have averaged 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, Newport County 2.6 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.2% for over 2.5 and 76.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
| 0-0 | 6.9% |
| 0-1 | 6.1% |
| 1-2 | 6.0% |
| 3-1 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Salford \ Newport County | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 6% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Salford goals, columns = Newport County. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
53.9%Both Teams to Score52.2%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 52.2% for three or more goals and 76.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Salford favoured at 52.1%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Salford 2 · 1 draws · Newport County 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Salford vs Newport County?
Salford vs Newport County finished 2-1. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 11.9%; it gave the actual 2-1 a 9.7% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.