Rochdale vs Shrewsbury: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Rochdale or draw
Draw or Shrewsbury
Full time9 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Rochdale at 38.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 59.4% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 67.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 79.8% and it landed (3 goals). We called No at 52.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 58.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.7% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 53.8% and it landed (4 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.9% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 58.4% and it landed (23 shots). We called Under 7.5 at 50.1% and it missed (8 shots on target). We called No at 88.0% and it landed.
| Match data | Rochdale | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 2 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 0 |
| Shots | 7 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 5 |
| Corners | 1 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 9 | 11 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Rochdale versus Shrewsbury in the League Two on 1 September 2026 is finely balanced. Rochdale edge it at 38%, but the gap to the field is slim. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Rochdale at 43%. Caution noted. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 47%. 3) Rochdale are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The run in: Rochdale arrive W1 D1 L4, Shrewsbury W1 D2 L3. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.043 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
38.0%-5.3%
29.6%+2.2%
32.4%+3.1%
conservative EV -0.043 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.8% | Over 7.5 | 49.9% | Over 8.5 | 37.6% | Over 9.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rochdale | 55.8% | Most: Shrewsbury | 31.5% | ||||
| Rochdale Over 4.2 | 43.3% | Shrewsbury Over 4.2 | 26.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.3% | Over 3.5 | 52.9% | Over 4.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rochdale | 33.3% | Most: Shrewsbury | 45.7% | ||
| Rochdale Over 1.8 | 52.1% | Shrewsbury Over 1.8 | 61.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Rochdale clean sheet | 33.4% |
|---|---|
| Shrewsbury clean sheet | 29.8% |
| Rochdale win to nil | 22.7% |
| Shrewsbury win to nil | 19.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 38.0% | draw | 29.6% | away | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 67.6% | 12 | 70.4% | X2 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 53.9% | away | 46.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.4% | no | 52.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.4% | away | 29.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 22.8% | away | 19.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.3% | home_by_2 | 11.1% | home_by_3plus | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.3% | away_by_2 | 9.1% | away_by_3plus | 4.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 0-1 | 10.3% | 0-2 | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.2% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | 1-1 | 13.9% | 1-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 2-1 | 8.0% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.9% | 3-1 | 3.2% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 0.9% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.4% | under_0.5 | 10.6% | over_1.5 | 67.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 32.3% | over_2.5 | 40.6% | under_2.5 | 59.4% |
| over_3.5 | 20.2% | under_3.5 | 79.8% | over_4.5 | 8.5% |
| under_4.5 | 91.6% | over_5.5 | 3.0% | under_5.5 | 97.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.2% | under_0.5 | 29.8% | over_1.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.9% | over_2.5 | 12.3% | under_2.5 | 87.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.6% | under_0.5 | 33.4% | over_1.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.0% | over_2.5 | 9.9% | under_2.5 | 90.1% |
most
| home | 38.0% | draw | 29.6% | away | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.5% | away_+2.5 | 94.5% | home_-1.5 | 16.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 83.4% | home_-0.5 | 38.0% | away_+0.5 | 62.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.6% | away_-0.5 | 32.5% | home_+1.5 | 86.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 13.1% | home_+2.5 | 96.0% | away_-2.5 | 4.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.6% | exact_1 | 21.7% | exact_2 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.4% | exact_4 | 11.8% | exact_5 | 5.4% |
| exact_6 | 2.1% | exact_7plus | 1.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.3% | draw | 49.7% | away | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 58.9% | under_0.5 | 41.2% | over_1.5 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.7% | over_2.5 | 6.1% | under_2.5 | 93.9% |
btts
| yes | 12.9% | no | 87.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 41.2% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 16.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.8% | exact_4plus | 1.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.4% | draw | 39.3% | away | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.7% | under_0.5 | 26.3% | over_1.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.5% | over_2.5 | 15.1% | under_2.5 | 84.9% |
btts
| yes | 23.5% | no | 76.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.7% | H/D | 4.2% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.1% | D/D | 19.5% | D/A | 13.1% |
| A/H | 2.2% | A/D | 5.2% | A/A | 17.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.1% | under_7.5 | 29.9% | over_8.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.8% | over_9.5 | 46.2% | under_9.5 | 53.8% |
| over_10.5 | 34.9% | under_10.5 | 65.1% | over_11.5 | 25.1% |
| under_11.5 | 74.9% | over_12.5 | 17.3% | under_12.5 | 82.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.2% | under_3.5 | 27.8% | over_4.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.2% | over_5.5 | 41.6% | under_5.5 | 58.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.8% | under_3.5 | 42.2% | over_4.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.4% | over_5.5 | 26.2% | under_5.5 | 73.8% |
most
| home | 55.3% | draw | 10.8% | away | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-1.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.9% | home_-0.5 | 55.3% | away_+0.5 | 44.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.1% | away_-0.5 | 33.9% | home_+1.5 | 75.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.3% | home_+3.5 | 89.6% | away_-3.5 | 10.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 54.4% | under_22.5 | 45.6% | over_24.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 58.4% | over_26.5 | 29.9% | under_26.5 | 70.1% |
| over_28.5 | 20.3% | under_28.5 | 79.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.0% | under_10.5 | 35.0% | over_12.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 52.7% | over_14.5 | 31.2% | under_14.5 | 68.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.2% | under_10.5 | 48.8% | over_12.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.9% | over_14.5 | 19.2% | under_14.5 | 80.8% |
most
| home | 56.8% | draw | 6.4% | away | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.2% | away_+4.5 | 68.8% | home_-2.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.3% | home_-0.5 | 56.8% | away_+0.5 | 43.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.2% | away_-0.5 | 36.8% | home_+2.5 | 74.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.2% | home_+4.5 | 84.1% | away_-4.5 | 15.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.8% | under_6.5 | 37.2% | over_7.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 50.1% | over_8.5 | 37.6% | under_8.5 | 62.4% |
| over_9.5 | 26.9% | under_9.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.4% | under_3.5 | 39.6% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.7% | over_5.5 | 28.7% | under_5.5 | 71.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 42.8% | under_3.5 | 57.2% | over_4.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.7% | over_5.5 | 14.7% | under_5.5 | 85.3% |
most
| home | 55.8% | draw | 12.7% | away | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.4% | away_+2.5 | 69.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.2% | home_+0.5 | 68.5% | away_-0.5 | 31.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.4% | away_-2.5 | 12.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.3% | under_2.5 | 26.7% | over_3.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 47.1% | over_4.5 | 33.4% | under_4.5 | 66.6% |
| over_5.5 | 18.6% | under_5.5 | 81.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.1% | under_1.5 | 47.9% | over_2.5 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.1% | under_1.5 | 38.9% | over_2.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.0% |
most
| home | 33.3% | draw | 21.0% | away | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.7% | away_+1.5 | 83.3% | home_-0.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.7% | home_+0.5 | 54.3% | away_-0.5 | 45.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.8% | away_-1.5 | 26.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 67.9% | under_20.5 | 32.1% | over_22.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 47.3% | over_24.5 | 37.6% | under_24.5 | 62.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 65.2% | under_9.5 | 34.8% | over_11.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 57.2% | over_13.5 | 23.7% | under_13.5 | 76.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 73.8% | under_9.5 | 26.2% | over_11.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.0% | over_13.5 | 32.6% | under_13.5 | 67.4% |
most
| home | 39.0% | draw | 7.7% | away | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.3% | away_+3.5 | 80.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.0% | home_+2.5 | 62.2% | away_-2.5 | 37.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 12.0% | no | 88.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.4% | no | 91.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.0% | no | 96.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Rochdale predictions · Shrewsbury predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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