League TwoRochdale vs Crawley Town Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 45.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 58.7% for over 22.5 to 23.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.9%. On the shot count, Rochdale are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.6%, with a level count at 6.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.6% | 76.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
67.0%
49.5%
33.3%
55.1%
37.0%
22.3%
Shot handicap
| Rochdale line | Rochdale | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| -2.5 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| -0.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| +0.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.9% | 69.1% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Rochdale.
In-depth analysis
45.9%Over 24.5 shots49.5%Rochdale over 12.5 shots37.0%Crawley Town over 12.5 shots54.4%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Rochdale over 12.5 shots sits at 49.5% and Crawley Town at 37.0%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 45.9% for Rochdale vs Crawley Town.
Which team will have more shots in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rochdale to take more shots at 55.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.