League TwoRochdale vs Crawley Town Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 54.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.5% for over 2.5 to 19.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. Head to head on cards, Crawley Town are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 20.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.7% | 80.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.0%
27.2%
61.5%
34.4%
Card handicap
| Rochdale line | Rochdale | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| +0.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 43.6% | 56.4% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rochdale vs Crawley Town. The model leans toward Crawley Town for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
54.4%Over 3.5 cards29.1%Any red card54.0%Rochdale over 1.5 cards61.5%Crawley Town over 1.5 cards58.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Rochdale over 1.5 cards sits at 54.0% and Crawley Town at 61.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 29.1% (Rochdale 18.5%, Crawley Town 13.0%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.4% for Rochdale vs Crawley Town.
Will there be a red card in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 29.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated Crawley Town to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.