Ligue 2
Reims vs Annecy Cards
Result
Settled, final score 3-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 53.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.5% for over 2.5 to 18.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.2%. Between the two sides, Annecy are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 21.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.2% | 46.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.8% | 81.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.8%
26.1%
60.9%
33.8%
Card handicap
| Reims line | Reims | Annecy |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| -0.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| +0.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| +1.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 63.5% | 36.5% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Reims vs Annecy. The model leans toward Annecy for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.2%Over 3.5 cards26.5%Any red card52.8%Reims over 1.5 cards60.9%Annecy over 1.5 cards76.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Reims over 1.5 cards sits at 52.8% and Annecy at 60.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 26.5% (Reims 12.1%, Annecy 16.5%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Reims vs Annecy?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.2% for Reims vs Annecy.
Will there be a red card in Reims vs Annecy?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 26.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Reims vs Annecy?
Before kickoff, the model rated Annecy to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.