Celta B vs Andorra: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Andorra
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Andorra at 49.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.6% and it landed (6 goals). We called Yes at 55.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Andorra, that gap is the story." A measured edge to Andorra: 49% is the model's line for this Segunda División meeting on 24 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 44% for Andorra. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Celta B are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Recent form reads W0 D1 L0 for Celta B against W2 D0 L4 for Andorra. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
25.1%-2.8%
25.5%-2.8%
49.4%+5.6%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 79.6% | Over 7.5 | 68.5% | Over 8.5 | 56.0% | Over 9.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Celta B | 55.1% | Most: Andorra | 32.5% | ||||
| Celta B Over 4.2 | 55.9% | Andorra Over 4.2 | 39.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 89.6% | Over 3.5 | 77.0% | Over 4.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Celta B | 37.2% | Most: Andorra | 45.1% | ||
| Celta B Over 1.8 | 71.6% | Andorra Over 1.8 | 76.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Celta B clean sheet | 19.0% |
|---|---|
| Andorra clean sheet | 32.4% |
| Celta B win to nil | 12.2% |
| Andorra win to nil | 25.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 25.1% | draw | 25.5% | away | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 50.6% | 12 | 74.5% | X2 | 74.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 33.7% | away | 66.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.1% | no | 44.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 19.0% | away | 32.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 12.2% | away | 25.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 15.2% | home_by_2 | 6.9% | home_by_3plus | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.8% | away_by_2 | 15.3% | away_by_3plus | 11.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 0-1 | 9.7% | 0-2 | 8.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.7% | 0-4 | 2.0% | 0-5 | 0.7% |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 1-1 | 12.1% | 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 1-3 | 5.3% | 1-4 | 2.2% | 1-5 | 0.7% |
| 2-0 | 3.9% | 2-1 | 6.5% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 3.0% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 1.5% | 3-1 | 2.4% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.4% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.2% | under_0.5 | 6.8% | over_1.5 | 77.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 22.9% | over_2.5 | 52.6% | under_2.5 | 47.4% |
| over_3.5 | 30.3% | under_3.5 | 69.7% | over_4.5 | 14.9% |
| under_4.5 | 85.1% | over_5.5 | 6.3% | under_5.5 | 93.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 67.3% | under_0.5 | 32.7% | over_1.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.2% | over_2.5 | 10.3% | under_2.5 | 89.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 81.0% | under_0.5 | 19.0% | over_1.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.6% | over_2.5 | 23.2% | under_2.5 | 76.8% |
most
| home | 25.1% | draw | 25.5% | away | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.0% | away_+2.5 | 97.0% | home_-1.5 | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 90.1% | home_-0.5 | 25.1% | away_+0.5 | 74.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 50.6% | away_-0.5 | 49.4% | home_+1.5 | 73.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.7% | home_+2.5 | 88.6% | away_-2.5 | 11.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.8% | exact_1 | 16.1% | exact_2 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.4% | exact_5 | 8.6% |
| exact_6 | 4.0% | exact_7plus | 2.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.6% | draw | 47.1% | away | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 62.5% | under_0.5 | 37.5% | over_1.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.3% | over_2.5 | 7.7% | under_2.5 | 92.3% |
btts
| yes | 15.0% | no | 85.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 37.5% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.9% | exact_4plus | 1.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.4% | draw | 38.0% | away | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.8% | under_0.5 | 24.2% | over_1.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.6% | over_2.5 | 17.1% | under_2.5 | 82.9% |
btts
| yes | 25.8% | no | 74.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.3% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.3% | D/D | 17.9% | D/A | 14.9% |
| A/H | 1.9% | A/D | 4.6% | A/A | 18.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.6% | under_7.5 | 29.5% | over_8.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.6% | over_9.5 | 46.0% | under_9.5 | 54.0% |
| over_10.5 | 34.4% | under_10.5 | 65.6% | over_11.5 | 24.5% |
| under_11.5 | 75.6% | over_12.5 | 16.5% | under_12.5 | 83.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.9% | under_3.5 | 27.1% | over_4.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.7% | over_5.5 | 41.8% | under_5.5 | 58.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.7% | under_3.5 | 42.3% | over_4.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.9% | over_5.5 | 25.6% | under_5.5 | 74.5% |
most
| home | 55.8% | draw | 10.9% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.2% | away_+3.5 | 75.8% | home_-1.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.5% | home_-0.5 | 55.8% | away_+0.5 | 44.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.7% | away_-0.5 | 33.3% | home_+1.5 | 76.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.7% | home_+3.5 | 90.0% | away_-3.5 | 10.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.3% | under_22.5 | 35.7% | over_24.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.4% | over_26.5 | 39.0% | under_26.5 | 61.0% |
| over_28.5 | 27.8% | under_28.5 | 72.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.7% | under_10.5 | 25.3% | over_12.5 | 58.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.7% | over_14.5 | 41.4% | under_14.5 | 58.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.4% | under_10.5 | 45.6% | over_12.5 | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.2% | over_14.5 | 21.0% | under_14.5 | 79.0% |
most
| home | 62.5% | draw | 6.0% | away | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.0% | away_+4.5 | 63.1% | home_-2.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.3% | home_-0.5 | 62.5% | away_+0.5 | 37.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.5% | away_-0.5 | 31.5% | home_+2.5 | 79.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.0% | home_+4.5 | 87.2% | away_-4.5 | 12.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 79.6% | under_6.5 | 20.4% | over_7.5 | 68.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 31.5% | over_8.5 | 56.0% | under_8.5 | 44.0% |
| over_9.5 | 43.4% | under_9.5 | 56.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.8% | under_3.5 | 27.3% | over_4.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.1% | over_5.5 | 39.1% | under_5.5 | 60.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.2% | under_3.5 | 41.8% | over_4.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.5% | over_5.5 | 24.0% | under_5.5 | 76.0% |
most
| home | 55.1% | draw | 12.4% | away | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.3% | away_+2.5 | 69.8% | home_-0.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.9% | home_+0.5 | 67.5% | away_-0.5 | 32.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.4% | away_-2.5 | 13.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 89.6% | under_2.5 | 10.4% | over_3.5 | 77.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 23.0% | over_4.5 | 60.5% | under_4.5 | 39.5% |
| over_5.5 | 43.0% | under_5.5 | 57.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 71.6% | under_1.5 | 28.4% | over_2.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 76.0% | under_1.5 | 24.0% | over_2.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 48.2% |
most
| home | 37.2% | draw | 17.8% | away | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.9% | away_+1.5 | 78.1% | home_-0.5 | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.8% | home_+0.5 | 54.9% | away_-0.5 | 45.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.7% | away_-1.5 | 28.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.7% | under_20.5 | 13.3% | over_22.5 | 77.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 22.6% | over_24.5 | 65.8% | under_24.5 | 34.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.9% | under_9.5 | 15.1% | over_11.5 | 70.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.0% | over_13.5 | 52.1% | under_13.5 | 47.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 80.5% | under_9.5 | 19.5% | over_11.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.4% | over_13.5 | 44.8% | under_13.5 | 55.2% |
most
| home | 51.8% | draw | 6.6% | away | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.5% | away_+3.5 | 67.5% | home_-0.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.2% | home_+2.5 | 70.7% | away_-2.5 | 29.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.9% | no | 86.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.4% | no | 92.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.0% | no | 93.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Celta B predictions · Andorra predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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