Celta vs Osasuna: model prediction

La Liga

Celta

WWLDW

Sun, 16 Aug 202610:30UK

Osasuna

LLLLL

Model’s top convictions

76%

Celta or draw

74%

Over 1.5 goals

54%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

CeltaWin probability

50.7%

Top 3 convictions

Celta or draw76.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.31

Over 1.5 goals74.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.35

Over 8.5 corners54.3%Good chancePays @ 1.84

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Celta at 51% for 16 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Form guide over the last six: Celta W3 D1 L2, Osasuna W1 D0 L5. The recent series reads 3 wins for Celta, 0 draws and 2 for Osasuna over 5 games, 3.4 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners43.2%@ 2.31

Over 10.5 corners33.2%@ 3.01

Medium risk

Both teams to score51.9%@ 1.93

Under 2.5 goals51.3%@ 1.95

Draw or Osasuna49.3%@ 2.03

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 7.97

1-0 correct score10.8%@ 9.23

2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.64

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Celta

50.7%

Draw

25.7%

Osasuna

23.6%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.548.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.554.3%

Good chance

Over 9.543.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.5%

Low chance

Most cornersCelta 59.8% · Osasuna 29.4%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.2%2.548.7%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.574.2%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

CeltaWWLDW

OsasunaLLLLL

Last 5 meetings: Celta 3 · 0 draws · Osasuna 2 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-02-06Celta 1-2 Osasuna

2025-10-26Osasuna 2-3 Celta

2025-02-21Celta 1-0 Osasuna

2024-09-01Osasuna 3-2 Celta

2024-02-04Osasuna 0-3 Celta

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

Celta

Osasuna

League position#6 of 20#16 of 20

Record W-D-L14-12-1211-9-18

Current streakW1L5

Points per game1.421.11

Record, home vs away6-5-82-4-13

PPG, home vs away1.210.53

Goals scored per game1.391.16

Goals conceded per game1.261.32

Scored, home vs away1.530.68

Conceded, home vs away1.471.37

1st half goals per game0.500.55

2nd half goals per game0.890.61

Corners won per game3.83.8

Cards per game2.02.6

Fouls per game11.713.5

Red cards this season16

Shots on target per game4.04.0

xG for per game1.371.35

xG against per game1.481.36

Over 2.5 rate

44.7%50.0%

BTTS rate

63.2%55.3%

Clean sheets

26.3%18.4%

Rates this season:CeltaOsasuna

League averages this season: 2.69 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Raul GarcíaOsasuna · key player

To score15.0%

@ 6.67

1+ on target38.5%

@ 2.60

2+ shots24.8%

@ 4.03

Shots/90 3.66SoT/90 1.86Goals/90 0.62

Ante BudimirOsasuna · in form

To score39.8%

@ 2.51

1+ on target64.7%

@ 1.55

2+ shots75.0%

@ 1.33

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.57

Víctor MuñozOsasuna · in form

To score16.2%

@ 6.17

1+ on target59.8%

@ 1.67

2+ shots68.9%

@ 1.45

Shots/90 2.7SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.2

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Celta win2.04

Draw3.80

Osasuna win4.06

Both teams to score1.93

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09

Over 1.5 goals1.35

Over 2.5 goals2.05

Over 3.5 goals3.72

Celta most2.04

Osasuna most4.06

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.46

Over 8.5 corners1.78

Over 9.5 corners2.29

Over 10.5 corners3.10

Celta most1.67

Osasuna most3.40

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23

Over 3.5 cards1.56

Over 4.5 cards2.20

Over 5.5 cards3.46

Celta most2.96

Osasuna most2.12

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42

Over 7.5 SoT1.74

Over 8.5 SoT2.24

Over 9.5 SoT3.06

Celta most1.61

Osasuna most3.84

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.76

Over 24.5 shots2.27

Over 26.5 shots3.12

Over 28.5 shots4.56

Celta most1.54

Osasuna most3.41

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.32

Over 22.5 fouls1.59

Over 24.5 fouls2.05

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	70.4%	Over 7.5	57.6%	Over 8.5	44.6%	Over 9.5	32.7%
Most: Celta	62.0%	Most: Osasuna	26.0%
Celta Over 4.2	52.6%	Osasuna Over 4.2	26.5%

Cards

Over 2.5	81.2%	Over 3.5	64.1%	Over 4.5	45.4%
Most: Celta	33.8%	Most: Osasuna	47.2%
Celta Over 1.8	59.6%	Osasuna Over 1.8	68.5%

Osasuna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Raul García	3.66	1.86	0.62	38.5%	24.8%	15.0%
Ante Budimir	3.03	1.17	0.57	64.7%	75.0%	39.8%
Víctor Muñoz	2.7	1.03	0.2	59.8%	68.9%	16.2%
Kike Barja	1.62	0.68	0.27	11.3%	3.4%	4.6%
Bryan Zaragoza	2	0.62	0.05	38.2%	46.0%	3.8%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	49.1%	draw	26.3%	away	24.6%

double_chance

1X	75.4%	12	73.7%	X2	50.9%

dnb

home	66.6%	away	33.4%

btts

yes	51.9%	no	48.1%

clean_sheet

home	35.2%	away	20.8%

win_to_nil

home	27.3%	away	12.9%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.2%	home_by_2	15.1%	home_by_3plus	10.7%
away_by_1	15.3%	away_by_2	6.7%	away_by_3plus	2.7%

correct_score

0-0	7.9%	0-1	7.0%	0-2	4.0%
0-3	1.4%	0-4	0.4%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	10.8%	1-1	12.5%	1-2	6.3%
1-3	2.2%	1-4	0.6%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	9.0%	2-1	9.4%	2-2	4.9%
2-3	1.7%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	4.8%	3-1	5.0%	3-2	2.6%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.9%	4-1	2.0%	4-2	1.0%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.6%	5-1	0.6%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.5%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	92.1%	under_0.5	7.9%	over_1.5	74.2%
under_1.5	25.8%	over_2.5	48.7%	under_2.5	51.3%
over_3.5	26.9%	under_3.5	73.1%	over_4.5	12.6%
under_4.5	87.4%	over_5.5	5.1%	under_5.5	94.9%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	79.2%	under_0.5	20.8%	over_1.5	46.7%
under_1.5	53.3%	over_2.5	21.1%	under_2.5	78.9%

team_away

over_0.5	64.8%	under_0.5	35.2%	over_1.5	28.1%
under_1.5	71.9%	over_2.5	8.9%	under_2.5	91.1%

most

home	49.1%	draw	26.3%	away	24.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	10.7%	away_+2.5	89.3%	home_-1.5	25.9%
away_+1.5	74.2%	home_-0.5	49.1%	away_+0.5	50.9%
home_+0.5	75.4%	away_-0.5	24.6%	home_+1.5	90.6%
away_-1.5	9.4%	home_+2.5	97.3%	away_-2.5	2.7%

total_exact

exact_0	7.9%	exact_1	17.9%	exact_2	25.5%
exact_3	21.8%	exact_4	14.3%	exact_5	7.5%
exact_6	3.3%	exact_7plus	1.8%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	31.5%	draw	45.5%	away	23.0%

total

over_0.5	64.5%	under_0.5	35.5%	over_1.5	27.7%
under_1.5	72.3%	over_2.5	8.7%	under_2.5	91.3%

btts

yes	16.1%	no	83.9%

total_exact

exact_0	35.5%	exact_1	36.8%	exact_2	19.0%
exact_3	6.6%	exact_4plus	2.1%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	48.9%	draw	32.4%	away	18.7%

total

over_0.5	81.3%	under_0.5	18.7%	over_1.5	50.0%
under_1.5	50.0%	over_2.5	23.7%	under_2.5	76.3%

btts

yes	29.0%	no	71.0%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	26.8%	H/D	3.6%	H/A	1.1%
D/H	22.2%	D/D	14.8%	D/A	8.5%
A/H	4.1%	A/D	5.7%	A/A	13.2%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	68.5%	under_7.5	31.5%	over_8.5	56.1%
under_8.5	43.9%	over_9.5	43.7%	under_9.5	56.4%
over_10.5	32.2%	under_10.5	67.8%	over_11.5	22.6%
under_11.5	77.4%	over_12.5	15.0%	under_12.5	85.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.0%	under_3.5	26.1%	over_4.5	58.7%
under_4.5	41.3%	over_5.5	43.2%	under_5.5	56.8%

team_away

over_3.5	52.6%	under_3.5	47.4%	over_4.5	35.1%
under_4.5	64.9%	over_5.5	21.4%	under_5.5	78.6%

most

home	60.0%	draw	10.6%	away	29.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	27.4%	away_+3.5	72.6%	home_-1.5	48.6%
away_+1.5	51.4%	home_-0.5	60.0%	away_+0.5	40.0%
home_+0.5	70.6%	away_-0.5	29.4%	home_+1.5	79.7%
away_-1.5	20.3%	home_+3.5	91.9%	away_-3.5	8.1%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	56.9%	under_22.5	43.1%	over_24.5	44.0%
under_24.5	56.0%	over_26.5	32.1%	under_26.5	67.9%
over_28.5	22.0%	under_28.5	78.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	71.4%	under_10.5	28.6%	over_12.5	54.6%
under_12.5	45.4%	over_14.5	38.0%	under_14.5	62.0%

team_away

over_10.5	46.8%	under_10.5	53.2%	over_12.5	29.0%
under_12.5	71.0%	over_14.5	16.1%	under_14.5	83.9%

most

home	64.8%	draw	5.9%	away	29.3%

handicap

home_-4.5	39.0%	away_+4.5	61.0%	home_-2.5	51.9%
away_+2.5	48.1%	home_-0.5	64.8%	away_+0.5	35.2%
home_+0.5	70.7%	away_-0.5	29.3%	home_+2.5	80.9%
away_-2.5	19.1%	home_+4.5	88.6%	away_-4.5	11.4%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	70.4%	under_6.5	29.6%	over_7.5	57.6%
under_7.5	42.4%	over_8.5	44.6%	under_8.5	55.4%
over_9.5	32.7%	under_9.5	67.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	69.6%	under_3.5	30.4%	over_4.5	52.6%
under_4.5	47.4%	over_5.5	36.4%	under_5.5	63.6%

team_away

over_3.5	44.1%	under_3.5	56.0%	over_4.5	26.5%
under_4.5	73.5%	over_5.5	14.3%	under_5.5	85.7%

most

home	62.0%	draw	12.0%	away	26.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	35.9%	away_+2.5	64.1%	home_-0.5	62.0%
away_+0.5	38.0%	home_+0.5	74.0%	away_-0.5	26.0%
home_+2.5	90.6%	away_-2.5	9.4%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	81.2%	under_2.5	18.8%	over_3.5	64.1%
under_3.5	35.9%	over_4.5	45.4%	under_4.5	54.6%
over_5.5	28.9%	under_5.5	71.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	59.6%	under_1.5	40.4%	over_2.5	33.1%
under_2.5	66.9%

team_away

over_1.5	68.5%	under_1.5	31.5%	over_2.5	42.9%
under_2.5	57.1%

most

home	33.8%	draw	19.0%	away	47.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	18.4%	away_+1.5	81.6%	home_-0.5	33.8%
away_+0.5	66.2%	home_+0.5	52.8%	away_-0.5	47.2%
home_+1.5	70.9%	away_-1.5	29.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	75.6%	under_20.5	24.5%	over_22.5	62.7%
under_22.5	37.3%	over_24.5	48.8%	under_24.5	51.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	66.5%	under_9.5	33.5%	over_11.5	45.8%
under_11.5	54.2%	over_13.5	27.4%	under_13.5	72.6%

team_away

over_9.5	80.8%	under_9.5	19.2%	over_11.5	63.9%
under_11.5	36.1%	over_13.5	45.0%	under_13.5	55.0%

most

home	33.9%	draw	6.7%	away	59.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	17.2%	away_+3.5	82.8%	home_-0.5	33.9%
away_+0.5	66.1%	home_+2.5	54.6%	away_-2.5	45.4%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	19.0%	no	81.0%

home

yes	5.7%	no	94.3%

away

yes	14.1%	no	85.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Celta predictions · Osasuna predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.