PAOK vs Aris prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

By /
Super League Greece

PAOK vs Aris Double Chance

2026-09-13 · 19:00
Double Chance80.4%Home or Draw

Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.

Best predictionHome or Draw · 80.4%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.
80%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Home or Draw at 80.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, PAOK are favoured at 56.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Double Chance

★ Top coverPAOK or Draw80.4%

Draw or Aris43.7%

PAOK or Aris75.9%

Draw no bet

PAOK74.1%

Aris25.9%

Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.

Winning margin

Margin Probability
PAOK by 1 23.8%
PAOK by 2 17.5%
PAOK by 3+ 15.0%
Aris by 1 12.7%
Aris by 2 5.1%
Aris by 3+ 1.9%
Draw 24.1%

Goal handicap

PAOK line PAOK Aris
-2.5 15.0% 85.0%
-1.5 32.5% 67.6%
-0.5 56.3% 43.7%
+0.5 80.4% 19.6%

Double chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is PAOK or draw on the model numbers.

In-depth analysis

56.3%Favoured: PAOK
52.0%Both Teams to Score
52.1%Over 2.5 goals

For context, PAOK are favoured at 56.3%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 80.4% on Double Chance, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 52.1% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutPAOK are the model’s pick on the result at 56.3%, game state shapes how this market plays out.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Form & head-to-head

PAOKDDWWL
ArisWWWWL

Last 5 meetings: PAOK 2 · 2 draws · Aris 1 · 1.6 goals/game.

FAQ

What is the most likely double chance in PAOK vs Aris?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for PAOK vs Aris at 80.4%.

What is the draw no bet probability in PAOK vs Aris?
With the draw taken out, the model rates PAOK at 74.1% and Aris at 25.9%.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Double Chance accuracy

How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

75.8%Best Double Chance call, hit rate
0.0097Calibration error
55,318Matches graded

In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Double Chance calls

The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✗ 78.1%✓ 80.2%✓ 81.4%✓ 84.3%✗ 71.2%✓ 72.9%✗ 71.7%✓ 77.1%✓ 81.1%✓ 70.6%
7 of 10 recent calls hit.
Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Draw or Away 78.1%Miss
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10Home or Draw 80.2%Hit
Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Home or Draw 81.4%Hit
Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Draw or Away 84.3%Hit
Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09Home or Draw 71.2%Miss

More Super League Greece, Double Chance

Olympiakos vs OFI CreteIraklis vs AtromitosKalamata vs Volos NFCAsteras Tripolis vs AEKKifisia vs LevadeiakosPanathinaikos vs Panetolikos

Related

Super League GreecePAOKArisTrack record

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.