Bundesliga
Paderborn vs 
Freiburg Correct Score
Result
Final score 0-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 7.2%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 11.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Paderborn have averaged 0.8 scored and 2.4 conceded, Freiburg 2.2 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 58.8% for over 2.5 and 81.3% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
| 0-1 | 7.2% |
| 0-2 | 6.4% |
| 2-2 | 6.3% |
| 1-0 | 6.1% |
| 0-0 | 5.3% |
Score probability grid
| Paderborn \ Freiburg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Paderborn goals, columns = Freiburg. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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5+
In-depth analysis
61.4%Both Teams to Score58.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 58.8% for three or more goals and 81.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Freiburg favoured at 43.4%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Paderborn 2 · 1 draws · Freiburg 1 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Paderborn vs Freiburg?
Paderborn vs Freiburg finished 0-1. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 11.5%; it gave the actual 0-1 a 7.2% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.