2. BundesligaOsnabruck vs Magdeburg Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 64.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 82.0% for over 2.5 to 28.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.7%. Between the two sides, Magdeburg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 19.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.0% | 18.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 64.8% | 35.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 45.7% | 54.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 28.7% | 71.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.0%
34.0%
68.7%
42.5%
Card handicap
| Osnabruck line | Osnabruck | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| -0.5 | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| +0.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| +1.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 38.6% | 61.4% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Osnabruck cards per game6.0Osnabruck fouls per game5.0Magdeburg cards per game14.0Magdeburg fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Osnabruck vs Magdeburg. Slightly more cards are projected for Magdeburg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
64.8%Over 3.5 cards12.7%Any red card61.0%Osnabruck over 1.5 cards68.7%Magdeburg over 1.5 cards52.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Osnabruck over 1.5 cards sits at 61.0% and Magdeburg at 68.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.7% (Osnabruck 6.2%, Magdeburg 6.9%). This season Osnabruck have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Magdeburg 5.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Osnabruck vs Magdeburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.8% for Osnabruck vs Magdeburg.
Will there be a red card in Osnabruck vs Magdeburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Osnabruck vs Magdeburg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Magdeburg to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.