La Liga
Osasuna vs 
Levante Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 66.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.0% for over 2.5 to 31.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.3%. Between the two sides, Levante are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 18.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.5% | 68.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.9%
37.7%
68.2%
42.5%
Card handicap
| Osasuna line | Osasuna | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| -0.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| +0.5 | 56.2% | 43.9% |
| +1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 52.3% | 47.7% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Osasuna vs Levante. It tips Levante for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
66.7%Over 3.5 cards27.6%Any red card63.9%Osasuna over 1.5 cards68.2%Levante over 1.5 cards66.0%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Osasuna over 1.5 cards sits at 63.9% and Levante at 68.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 27.6% (Osasuna 16.1%, Levante 13.7%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Osasuna vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 66.7% for Osasuna vs Levante.
Will there be a red card in Osasuna vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 27.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Osasuna vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated Levante to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.