Super League GreeceOlympiacos vs 
Panathinaikos Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 12.2% at 0-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.8% for over 2.5 and 73.6% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 0-2 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 0-0 | 8.1% |
| 1-0 | 6.2% |
| 0-3 | 6.1% |
| 1-3 | 5.4% |
Score probability grid
| Olympiacos \ Panathinaikos | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 1 | 6% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Olympiacos goals, columns = Panathinaikos. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 12.2%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
48.8%Both Teams to Score47.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 47.8% for three or more goals and 73.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Panathinaikos favoured at 55.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos?
The model's most likely scoreline for Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos is 0-1 at 12.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
