Super League GreeceOlympiacos vs 
Panathinaikos Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 73.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.8% for over 2.5 to 38.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.4%. Head to head on cards, Panathinaikos are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 18.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.8% | 12.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 38.9% | 61.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
70.5%
44.7%
72.6%
47.3%
Card handicap
| Olympiacos line | Olympiacos | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.1% | 76.9% |
| -0.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| +0.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 86.3% | 13.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 77.3% | 22.7% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos. It tips Panathinaikos for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
73.9%Over 3.5 cards28.7%Any red card70.5%Olympiacos over 1.5 cards72.6%Panathinaikos over 1.5 cards86.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Olympiacos over 1.5 cards sits at 70.5% and Panathinaikos at 72.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 28.7% (Olympiacos 18.6%, Panathinaikos 12.4%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 73.9% for Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos.
Will there be a red card in Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos?
The model rates a red card for either side at 28.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos?
The model rates Panathinaikos to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 18.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,429 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
AI experts on Cards
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | Over 3.5 cards |
| cards_referee v1.0 | Over 3.5 cards |
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
