Ligue 1
Nice vs 
Lorient Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 53.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Nice have averaged 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Lorient 2.0 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 53.0% for over 2.5 and 77.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Nice have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Lorient in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Goal line guide
| Line | Over |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 53.0% for three or more goals and 77.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Nice favoured at 38.7%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Nice to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Nice 1 · 3 draws · Lorient 1 · 3.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nice vs Lorient?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 53.0% for Nice vs Lorient.
How often have Nice gone over 2.5 recently?
Nice have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Lorient in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 17,986 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.