Pro League
Mechelen vs 
Standard Correct Score
Result
Final score 3-3. The model gave that exact scoreline 0.8%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.6% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Mechelen have averaged 0.8 scored and 2.4 conceded, Standard 1.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 44.1% for over 2.5 and 70.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.4 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
| 0-2 | 6.6% |
| 2-0 | 6.3% |
Score probability grid
| Mechelen \ Standard | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Mechelen goals, columns = Standard. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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5+
In-depth analysis
50.3%Both Teams to Score44.1%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 44.1% for three or more goals and 70.7% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Standard favoured at 36.4%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Mechelen 0 · 4 draws · Standard 1 · 1.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Mechelen vs Standard?
Mechelen vs Standard finished 3-3. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.6%; it gave the actual 3-3 a 0.8% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Pro League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.