Mechelen vs Standard: model prediction
Pro LeagueOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Standard
Mechelen or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Standard at 36.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 55.9% and it missed (6 goals). We called Yes at 50.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Mechelen and Standard almost evenly, Standard marginally on top at 36%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market broadly agrees, pricing Standard at 36%. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. 3) The recent series reads 0 wins for Mechelen, 4 draws and 1 for Standard over 5 games, 1.4 goals on average. The run in: Mechelen arrive W1 D2 L3, Standard W3 D2 L1. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.005 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
35.0%-0.9%
28.7%+0.4%
36.4%+0.5%
value_gap +0.005 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Mechelen 0 · 4 draws · Standard 1 · 1.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Mechelen
Standard0.0%100.0%
0.0%100.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 3.33 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 78% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.7% | Over 7.5 | 63.2% | Over 8.5 | 51.0% | Over 9.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Mechelen | 49.2% | Most: Standard | 38.5% | ||||
| Mechelen Over 4.2 | 48.1% | Standard Over 4.2 | 40.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.1% | Over 3.5 | 51.4% | Over 4.5 | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Mechelen | 35.1% | Most: Standard | 43.6% | ||
| Mechelen Over 1.8 | 52.6% | Standard Over 1.8 | 58.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Mechelen clean sheet | 29.0% |
|---|---|
| Standard clean sheet | 29.9% |
| Mechelen win to nil | 19.7% |
| Standard win to nil | 20.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 35.0% | draw | 28.7% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 63.7% | 12 | 71.3% | X2 | 65.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 49.0% | away | 51.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.3% | no | 49.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.1% | away | 30.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.7% | away | 20.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.9% | home_by_2 | 10.1% | home_by_3plus | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.4% | away_by_2 | 10.6% | away_by_3plus | 5.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.4% | 0-1 | 10.1% | 0-2 | 6.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.7% | 0-4 | 0.8% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 1-1 | 13.6% | 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-3 | 3.3% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 2-1 | 7.8% | 2-2 | 4.8% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.6% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 1.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.6% | under_0.5 | 9.4% | over_1.5 | 70.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.3% | over_2.5 | 44.1% | under_2.5 | 55.9% |
| over_3.5 | 23.0% | under_3.5 | 77.0% | over_4.5 | 10.1% |
| under_4.5 | 89.9% | over_5.5 | 3.8% | under_5.5 | 96.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.1% | under_0.5 | 30.0% | over_1.5 | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.1% | over_2.5 | 12.2% | under_2.5 | 87.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.9% | under_0.5 | 29.1% | over_1.5 | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.0% | over_2.5 | 12.8% | under_2.5 | 87.2% |
most
| home | 35.0% | draw | 28.7% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.0% | away_+2.5 | 95.0% | home_-1.5 | 15.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 84.9% | home_-0.5 | 35.0% | away_+0.5 | 65.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.7% | away_-0.5 | 36.4% | home_+1.5 | 84.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.0% | home_+2.5 | 94.6% | away_-2.5 | 5.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.4% | exact_1 | 20.0% | exact_2 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.1% | exact_4 | 12.9% | exact_5 | 6.3% |
| exact_6 | 2.6% | exact_7plus | 1.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.4% | draw | 44.1% | away | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.7% | under_0.5 | 33.3% | over_1.5 | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.9% | over_2.5 | 10.0% | under_2.5 | 90.0% |
btts
| yes | 17.8% | no | 82.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 33.3% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.4% | exact_4plus | 2.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.3% | draw | 39.8% | away | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.2% | under_0.5 | 26.8% | over_1.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.1% | over_2.5 | 14.7% | under_2.5 | 85.3% |
btts
| yes | 23.2% | no | 76.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.1% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.4% | D/D | 17.5% | D/A | 13.2% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 5.4% | A/A | 23.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 76.7% | under_7.5 | 23.3% | over_8.5 | 65.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 34.2% | over_9.5 | 53.9% | under_9.5 | 46.1% |
| over_10.5 | 42.1% | under_10.5 | 57.9% | over_11.5 | 31.3% |
| under_11.5 | 68.7% | over_12.5 | 22.2% | under_12.5 | 77.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.6% | under_3.5 | 22.5% | over_4.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.8% | over_5.5 | 48.2% | under_5.5 | 51.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.4% | under_3.5 | 38.6% | over_4.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.9% | over_5.5 | 29.1% | under_5.5 | 70.9% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 10.3% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.9% | away_+3.5 | 73.1% | home_-1.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.2% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+1.5 | 76.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.1% | home_+3.5 | 89.9% | away_-3.5 | 10.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 67.3% | under_22.5 | 32.7% | over_24.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 44.3% | over_26.5 | 43.9% | under_26.5 | 56.1% |
| over_28.5 | 32.9% | under_28.5 | 67.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.9% | under_10.5 | 25.1% | over_12.5 | 59.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.2% | over_14.5 | 44.2% | under_14.5 | 55.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 57.5% | under_10.5 | 42.5% | over_12.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.9% | over_14.5 | 25.5% | under_14.5 | 74.5% |
most
| home | 60.8% | draw | 5.7% | away | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.1% | away_+4.5 | 62.9% | home_-2.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.1% | home_-0.5 | 60.8% | away_+0.5 | 39.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.6% | home_+2.5 | 76.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.4% | home_+4.5 | 84.8% | away_-4.5 | 15.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.7% | under_6.5 | 25.3% | over_7.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.8% | over_8.5 | 51.1% | under_8.5 | 48.9% |
| over_9.5 | 39.4% | under_9.5 | 60.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.1% | under_3.5 | 34.9% | over_4.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.9% | over_5.5 | 32.9% | under_5.5 | 67.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.9% | under_3.5 | 42.1% | over_4.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.6% | over_5.5 | 25.9% | under_5.5 | 74.1% |
most
| home | 49.2% | draw | 12.3% | away | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.2% | away_+2.5 | 73.8% | home_-0.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.8% | home_+0.5 | 61.5% | away_-0.5 | 38.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 81.9% | away_-2.5 | 18.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.1% | under_2.5 | 27.9% | over_3.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 48.6% | over_4.5 | 32.1% | under_4.5 | 68.0% |
| over_5.5 | 17.6% | under_5.5 | 82.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.6% | under_1.5 | 47.4% | over_2.5 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 58.8% | under_1.5 | 41.2% | over_2.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 35.1% | draw | 21.4% | away | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.9% | away_+1.5 | 82.1% | home_-0.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.0% | home_+0.5 | 56.4% | away_-0.5 | 43.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.7% | away_-1.5 | 24.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 57.7% | under_20.5 | 42.3% | over_22.5 | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.0% | over_24.5 | 29.7% | under_24.5 | 70.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 57.9% | under_9.5 | 42.1% | over_11.5 | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 63.1% | over_13.5 | 20.4% | under_13.5 | 79.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.7% | under_9.5 | 34.3% | over_11.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 54.8% | over_13.5 | 27.1% | under_13.5 | 72.9% |
most
| home | 40.5% | draw | 7.4% | away | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.1% | away_+3.5 | 78.9% | home_-0.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.5% | home_+2.5 | 62.6% | away_-2.5 | 37.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 16.4% | no | 83.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 12.0% | no | 88.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Mechelen predictions · Standard predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets