Premier League
Manchester City vs 
Bournemouth Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 57.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.7% for over 2.5 to 22.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.4%. Head to head on cards, Bournemouth are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 56.6%, with a level count at 19.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 22.1% | 77.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.1%
21.3%
70.2%
44.3%
Card handicap
| Manchester City line | Manchester City | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.2% | 88.8% |
| -0.5 | 24.3% | 75.6% |
| +0.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| +1.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.9% | 74.1% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | A Taylor | 5 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| Manchester City | D England | 4 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| Manchester City | M Oliver | 4 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| Bournemouth | A Taylor | 4 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| Bournemouth | M Oliver | 4 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Bournemouth | M Salisbury | 3 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Manchester City vs Bournemouth. Slightly more cards are projected for Bournemouth for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
57.4%Over 3.5 cards10.0%Any red card47.1%Manchester City over 1.5 cards70.2%Bournemouth over 1.5 cards40.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Manchester City over 1.5 cards sits at 47.1% and Bournemouth at 70.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.0% (Manchester City 3.7%, Bournemouth 6.6%). Manchester City’s most frequent referee this season, A Taylor, has averaged 3.8 cards a game across 5 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.4% for Manchester City vs Bournemouth.
Will there be a red card in Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bournemouth to pick up more cards at 56.6%, with a level count at 19.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.