Manchester City vs Bournemouth: model prediction
Premier League
Manchester City or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Manchester City at 60.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 57.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 56.6% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Manchester City go into this Premier League meeting with Bournemouth on 23 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 61%. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Manchester City higher (65%) than our model does. • No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Team news worth noting: Manchester City have Doku ruled out; Bournemouth have Milosavljević ruled out, J.Araujo ruled out, Soler a doubt. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Manchester City, 1 draws and 1 for Bournemouth at 2.8 goals per match. Erling Haaland drives the home shot volume, 1.8 on target per 90. The run in: Manchester City arrive W3 D2 L1, Bournemouth W3 D3 L0. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.007 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
60.7%-4.5%
21.9%+1.4%
17.4%+3.1%
conservative EV -0.007 <= 0
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Manchester City 3 · 1 draws · Bournemouth 1 · 2.8 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 1.91
@ 1.21
@ 1.15
@ 13.51
@ 4.42
@ 4.61
@ 4.20
@ 1.98
@ 1.59
@ 3.29
@ 1.45
@ 1.24
@ 27.03
@ 2.40
@ 2.40
@ 3.05
@ 2.12
@ 2.14
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
- DokuManchester CityOut0% to play
- MilosavljevićBournemouthOut0% to play
- J.AraujoBournemouthOut0% to play
- SolerBournemouthDoubtful75% to play
- AdamsBournemouthDoubtful75% to play
- BrooksBournemouthDoubtful75% to play
- ChristieBournemouthSuspended0% to play
- AdliBournemouthOut0% to play
- Kroupi.JrBournemouthOut0% to play
- RodríguezBournemouthDoubtful75% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 76.8% | Over 7.5 | 66.1% | Over 8.5 | 54.6% | Over 9.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Manchester City | 60.6% | Most: Bournemouth | 28.4% | ||||
| Manchester City Over 4.2 | 58.0% | Bournemouth Over 4.2 | 34.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 76.7% | Over 3.5 | 57.4% | Over 4.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Manchester City | 24.3% | Most: Bournemouth | 56.6% | ||
| Manchester City Over 1.8 | 47.1% | Bournemouth Over 1.8 | 70.2% |
Manchester City: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 3.7 | 1.82 | 0.77 | 82.7% | 87.1% | 52.4% |
| Omar Marmoush | 3.77 | 1.24 | 0.48 | 50.5% | 63.0% | 23.8% |
| Sávio | 2.62 | 0.99 | 0.07 | 41.6% | 41.6% | 3.7% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 2.15 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 56.2% | 59.3% | 33.5% |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 3.06 | 0.84 | 0.22 | 42.8% | 60.3% | 13.6% |
Bournemouth: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enes Ünal | 6.8 | 2 | 0.6 | 22.6% | 21.7% | 7.4% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 3.1 | 1.19 | 0.37 | 68.8% | 80.6% | 30.4% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 2.74 | 1.11 | 0.69 | 47.2% | 46.7% | 32.8% |
| David Brooks | 3.09 | 1.06 | 0.13 | 26.9% | 23.2% | 3.8% |
| Evanilson | 2.52 | 0.94 | 0.28 | 55.4% | 63.7% | 21.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Manchester City clean sheet | 33.9% |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 14.4% |
| Manchester City win to nil | 28.5% |
| Bournemouth win to nil | 8.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 57.1% | draw | 22.9% | away | 20.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 80.0% | 12 | 77.1% | X2 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 74.0% | away | 26.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 56.7% | no | 43.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.4% | away | 14.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 29.0% | away | 8.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.0% | home_by_2 | 17.6% | home_by_3plus | 16.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.5% | away_by_2 | 5.4% | away_by_3plus | 2.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.5% | 0-1 | 4.8% | 0-2 | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 1-1 | 10.7% | 1-2 | 5.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.0% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.0% | 3-1 | 6.4% | 3-2 | 3.4% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.9% | 4-1 | 3.1% | 4-2 | 1.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.1% | 5-1 | 1.2% | 5-2 | 0.6% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.6% | under_0.5 | 5.5% | over_1.5 | 80.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 19.3% | over_2.5 | 57.9% | under_2.5 | 42.1% |
| over_3.5 | 35.5% | under_3.5 | 64.5% | over_4.5 | 18.7% |
| under_4.5 | 81.3% | over_5.5 | 8.5% | under_5.5 | 91.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 85.6% | under_0.5 | 14.4% | over_1.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 42.3% | over_2.5 | 30.7% | under_2.5 | 69.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.6% | under_0.5 | 34.4% | over_1.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.0% | over_2.5 | 9.4% | under_2.5 | 90.6% |
most
| home | 57.1% | draw | 22.9% | away | 20.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 16.5% | away_+2.5 | 83.5% | home_-1.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 65.9% | home_-0.5 | 57.1% | away_+0.5 | 42.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 80.0% | away_-0.5 | 20.0% | home_+1.5 | 92.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.6% | home_+2.5 | 97.8% | away_-2.5 | 2.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.5% | exact_1 | 13.8% | exact_2 | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.9% | exact_5 | 10.2% |
| exact_6 | 5.1% | exact_7plus | 3.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 55.0% | draw | 34.4% | away | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.7% | under_0.5 | 25.4% | over_1.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.1% | over_2.5 | 16.0% | under_2.5 | 84.0% |
btts
| yes | 17.4% | no | 82.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.4% | exact_1 | 34.8% | exact_2 | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.9% | exact_4plus | 5.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.6% | draw | 34.7% | away | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.2% | under_0.5 | 19.8% | over_1.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.9% | over_2.5 | 22.1% | under_2.5 | 77.9% |
btts
| yes | 30.1% | no | 69.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 45.6% | H/D | 6.8% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.6% | D/D | 11.9% | D/A | 8.8% |
| A/H | 1.4% | A/D | 2.4% | A/A | 6.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.6% | under_7.5 | 20.4% | over_8.5 | 69.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.4% | over_9.5 | 58.5% | under_9.5 | 41.5% |
| over_10.5 | 47.0% | under_10.5 | 53.0% | over_11.5 | 36.2% |
| under_11.5 | 63.8% | over_12.5 | 26.7% | under_12.5 | 73.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 80.6% | under_3.5 | 19.5% | over_4.5 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 32.1% | over_5.5 | 54.1% | under_5.5 | 45.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.1% | under_3.5 | 39.9% | over_4.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.6% | over_5.5 | 29.1% | under_5.5 | 70.9% |
most
| home | 61.5% | draw | 9.2% | away | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.4% | away_+3.5 | 67.6% | home_-1.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 48.4% | home_-0.5 | 61.5% | away_+0.5 | 38.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.7% | away_-0.5 | 29.3% | home_+1.5 | 78.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.3% | home_+3.5 | 90.3% | away_-3.5 | 9.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 65.1% | under_22.5 | 34.9% | over_24.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 46.3% | over_26.5 | 42.2% | under_26.5 | 57.8% |
| over_28.5 | 31.5% | under_28.5 | 68.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.1% | under_10.5 | 23.9% | over_12.5 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.1% | over_14.5 | 47.0% | under_14.5 | 53.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.3% | under_10.5 | 48.7% | over_12.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.4% | over_14.5 | 21.4% | under_14.5 | 78.6% |
most
| home | 66.1% | draw | 5.2% | away | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.1% | away_+4.5 | 56.9% | home_-2.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 45.2% | home_-0.5 | 66.1% | away_+0.5 | 33.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.3% | away_-0.5 | 28.7% | home_+2.5 | 80.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.6% | home_+4.5 | 87.5% | away_-4.5 | 12.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 76.8% | under_6.5 | 23.2% | over_7.5 | 66.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 33.9% | over_8.5 | 54.6% | under_8.5 | 45.5% |
| over_9.5 | 43.2% | under_9.5 | 56.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.0% | under_3.5 | 27.0% | over_4.5 | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.0% | over_5.5 | 43.1% | under_5.5 | 56.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.6% | under_3.5 | 48.4% | over_4.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.6% | over_5.5 | 21.1% | under_5.5 | 78.9% |
most
| home | 60.6% | draw | 11.0% | away | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 37.3% | away_+2.5 | 62.7% | home_-0.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 39.4% | home_+0.5 | 71.6% | away_-0.5 | 28.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.9% | away_-2.5 | 12.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 76.7% | under_2.5 | 23.3% | over_3.5 | 57.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 42.6% | over_4.5 | 37.8% | under_4.5 | 62.2% |
| over_5.5 | 22.1% | under_5.5 | 77.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 47.1% | under_1.5 | 52.9% | over_2.5 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 78.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.2% | under_1.5 | 29.8% | over_2.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.7% |
most
| home | 24.3% | draw | 19.0% | away | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.2% | away_+1.5 | 88.8% | home_-0.5 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 75.6% | home_+0.5 | 43.4% | away_-0.5 | 56.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 63.7% | away_-1.5 | 36.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 56.5% | under_20.5 | 43.5% | over_22.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.8% | over_24.5 | 25.9% | under_24.5 | 74.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 48.0% | under_9.5 | 52.0% | over_11.5 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 74.2% | over_13.5 | 11.3% | under_13.5 | 88.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 74.0% | under_9.5 | 26.0% | over_11.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.3% | over_13.5 | 31.9% | under_13.5 | 68.1% |
most
| home | 27.3% | draw | 7.4% | away | 65.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 11.0% | away_+3.5 | 89.1% | home_-0.5 | 27.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.7% | home_+2.5 | 50.9% | away_-2.5 | 49.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.0% | no | 90.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.7% | no | 96.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.6% | no | 93.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Manchester City predictions · Bournemouth predictions · Premier League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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