La Liga
Malaga vs 
Levante Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 62.1% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 81.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 62.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 79.8% for over 2.5 to 27.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.3%. Between the two sides, Levante are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 19.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.1% | 73.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.0%
34.7%
64.5%
38.5%
Card handicap
| Malaga line | Malaga | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.2% | 78.8% |
| -0.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| +0.5 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.7% | 25.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 48.5% | 51.5% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Malaga vs Levante. The model leans toward Levante for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
62.1%Over 3.5 cards18.3%Any red card61.0%Malaga over 1.5 cards64.5%Levante over 1.5 cards62.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Malaga over 1.5 cards sits at 61.0% and Levante at 64.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.3% (Malaga 11.7%, Levante 7.4%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Malaga vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 62.1% for Malaga vs Levante.
Will there be a red card in Malaga vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Malaga vs Levante?
Before kickoff, the model rated Levante to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.