Alaves vs Osasuna prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Alaves vs Osasuna: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

La Liga
Alaves

WLWDW

Full time5-2Sun, 6 Sep 202617:30UK29°C · Cloudy
Osasuna

LLDWW

Model’s top convictions

74%

Alaves or draw

70%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Alaves 5-2 Osasuna
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Alaves at 45.9%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 57.3% and it missed (7 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 69.5% and it landed (7 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 78.1% and it missed (7 goals). We called No at 52.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 58.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 77.8% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 51.0% and it missed (5 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 68.9% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 54.7% and it landed (19 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 57.3% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 76.5% and it landed.

Match data Alaves Osasuna
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 3 2
Shots 12 7
Shots, 1st half 4 3
Shots, 2nd half 8 4
Shots on target 7 5
Corners 4 1
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 14 13
Expected goals (xG) 1.60 1.64

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AlavesWin probability
45.9%
Top 3 convictions

Alaves or draw74.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Over 1.5 goals69.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.44
Over 8.5 corners60.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

The model leans Alaves at 46% when Alaves host Osasuna in the La Liga on 6 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 48%. The run in: Alaves arrive W4 D1 L1, Osasuna W2 D1 L3. For shots markets, Antonio Martínez is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Alaves, 3 draws and 2 for Osasuna at 2.8 goals per match. Fatigue may matter, with Osasuna 3 days shorter on recovery than Alaves. One eye on the skies, with 0.6 mm of rain around kickoff and 29 degrees of heat in the forecast. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals42.7%@ 2.34
Over 10.5 corners39.4%@ 2.54
Over 11.5 corners30.1%@ 3.32
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals57.3%@ 1.75
Draw or Osasuna54.1%@ 1.85
Not both teams to score52.0%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.48
1-0 correct score12.1%@ 8.24
0-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.18

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Alaves

45.9%

Draw

28.2%

Osasuna

25.9%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.542.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.0%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.1%

Toss-up

Most cornersAlaves59.7%Osasuna29.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.1%

Good chance

Over 24.545.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.5%2.542.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.569.5%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AlavesWLWDW
OsasunaLLDWW

Last 5 meetings: Alaves 0 · 3 draws · Osasuna 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-04-05Alaves 2-2 Osasuna
2025-12-20Osasuna 3-0 Alaves
2025-05-24Alaves 1-1 Osasuna
2024-12-08Osasuna 2-2 Alaves
2024-03-04Osasuna 1-0 Alaves

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AlavesOsasuna
League position#4 of 20#5 of 20
Record W-D-L2-1-02-1-0
Current streakW1W2
Record, home vs away2-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.84 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 52%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Antonio MartínezAlaves · key player
To score21.6%

@ 4.63

1+ on target50.9%

@ 1.96

2+ shots62.6%

@ 1.60

Shots/90 3.22SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.37
Raul GarcíaOsasuna · key player
To score15.0%

@ 6.67

1+ on target40.7%

@ 2.46

2+ shots28.1%

@ 3.56

Shots/90 3.78SoT/90 1.89Goals/90 0.59
Lucas BoyéAlaves · in form
To score32.0%

@ 3.13

1+ on target50.8%

@ 1.97

2+ shots64.3%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 2.9SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.51
Ante BudimirOsasuna · in form
To score41.7%

@ 2.40

1+ on target66.0%

@ 1.52

2+ shots76.2%

@ 1.31

Shots/90 3.12SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.61
Abderrahmane RebbachAlaves · in form
To score2.2%

@ 45.45

1+ on target29.6%

@ 3.38

2+ shots28.3%

@ 3.53

Shots/90 1.86SoT/90 0.62Goals/90 0.04
Kike BarjaOsasuna · in form
To score6.4%

@ 15.63

1+ on target12.5%

@ 8.00

2+ shots4.5%

@ 22.22

Shots/90 1.8SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.36

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Alaves win2.21
Draw3.53
Osasuna win3.79
Both teams to score2.08

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.44
Over 2.5 goals2.34
Over 3.5 goals4.57
Alaves most2.21
Osasuna most3.79

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.96
Over 10.5 corners2.55
Alaves most1.67
Osasuna most3.34

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.18
Over 3.5 cards1.45
Over 4.5 cards1.96
Over 5.5 cards2.93
Alaves most2.61
Osasuna most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.74
Over 8.5 SoT2.26
Over 9.5 SoT3.08
Alaves most1.69
Osasuna most3.49

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.72
Over 24.5 shots2.21
Over 26.5 shots3.00
Over 28.5 shots4.34
Alaves most1.56
Osasuna most3.35

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.20
Over 22.5 fouls1.37
Over 24.5 fouls1.66
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.1% Over 7.5 57.3% Over 8.5 44.3% Over 9.5 32.5%
Most: Alaves 59.0% Most: Osasuna 28.6%
Alaves Over 4.2 50.4% Osasuna Over 4.2 28.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 84.4% Over 3.5 68.9% Over 4.5 51.0%
Most: Alaves 38.3% Most: Osasuna 43.2%
Alaves Over 1.8 66.1% Osasuna Over 1.8 69.1%

Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Antonio Martínez 3.22 1.08 0.37 50.9% 62.6% 21.6%
Lucas Boyé 2.9 0.94 0.51 50.8% 64.3% 32.0%
Abderrahmane Rebbach 1.86 0.62 0.04 29.6% 28.3% 2.2%
Carlos Benavídez 0.88 0.5 0.13 12.8% 2.5% 3.5%
Pablo Ibáñez 1.68 0.43 0.05 24.4% 29.8% 3.2%

Osasuna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Raul García 3.78 1.89 0.59 40.7% 28.1% 15.0%
Ante Budimir 3.12 1.22 0.61 66.0% 76.2% 41.7%
Kike Barja 1.8 0.72 0.36 12.5% 4.5% 6.4%
Raul Moro 1.46 0.47 0.1 27.5% 26.3% 6.6%
Rubén García 1.08 0.37 0.12 24.0% 19.1% 8.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Alaves clean sheet 36.8%
Osasuna clean sheet 24.9%
Alaves win to nil 26.9%
Osasuna win to nil 15.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 45.3% draw 28.3% away 26.4%
double_chance
1X 73.6% 12 71.7% X2 54.7%
dnb
home 63.2% away 36.8%
btts
yes 48.0% no 52.0%
clean_sheet
home 36.9% away 24.9%
win_to_nil
home 27.0% away 15.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.3% home_by_2 13.8% home_by_3plus 8.3%
away_by_1 16.5% away_by_2 7.1% away_by_3plus 2.7%
correct_score
0-0 9.8% 0-1 8.5% 0-2 4.6%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.1% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.1% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.9% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 4.4%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.1% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.2% under_0.5 9.8% over_1.5 69.5%
under_1.5 30.5% over_2.5 42.7% under_2.5 57.3%
over_3.5 21.9% under_3.5 78.1% over_4.5 9.4%
under_4.5 90.6% over_5.5 3.5% under_5.5 96.5%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 75.1% under_0.5 24.9% over_1.5 40.5%
under_1.5 59.5% over_2.5 16.4% under_2.5 83.6%
team_away
over_0.5 63.1% under_0.5 36.9% over_1.5 26.4%
under_1.5 73.6% over_2.5 8.0% under_2.5 92.0%
most
home 45.3% draw 28.3% away 26.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.3% away_+2.5 91.7% home_-1.5 22.0%
away_+1.5 78.0% home_-0.5 45.3% away_+0.5 54.7%
home_+0.5 73.6% away_-0.5 26.4% home_+1.5 90.2%
away_-1.5 9.8% home_+2.5 97.3% away_-2.5 2.7%
total_exact
exact_0 9.8% exact_1 20.7% exact_2 26.8%
exact_3 20.8% exact_4 12.4% exact_5 5.9%
exact_6 2.4% exact_7plus 1.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.4% draw 49.9% away 18.7%
total
over_0.5 58.1% under_0.5 41.9% over_1.5 21.6%
under_1.5 78.4% over_2.5 5.8% under_2.5 94.2%
btts
yes 11.9% no 88.1%
total_exact
exact_0 41.9% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 15.8%
exact_3 4.6% exact_4plus 1.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.4% draw 36.4% away 26.2%
total
over_0.5 77.8% under_0.5 22.2% over_1.5 44.3%
under_1.5 55.7% over_2.5 19.2% under_2.5 80.8%
btts
yes 27.5% no 72.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.7% H/D 4.9% H/A 1.8%
D/H 18.7% D/D 18.2% D/A 13.1%
A/H 2.1% A/D 4.1% A/A 12.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.5% under_7.5 25.5% over_8.5 63.1%
under_8.5 36.9% over_9.5 51.0% under_9.5 49.0%
over_10.5 39.2% under_10.5 60.8% over_11.5 28.7%
under_11.5 71.3% over_12.5 20.0% under_12.5 80.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.4% under_3.5 22.6% over_4.5 63.0%
under_4.5 37.0% over_5.5 47.9% under_5.5 52.1%
team_away
over_3.5 57.6% under_3.5 42.4% over_4.5 40.1%
under_4.5 59.9% over_5.5 25.6% under_5.5 74.4%
most
home 59.9% draw 10.2% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.5% away_+3.5 71.5% home_-1.5 49.0%
away_+1.5 51.0% home_-0.5 59.9% away_+0.5 40.2%
home_+0.5 70.1% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+1.5 78.9%
away_-1.5 21.1% home_+3.5 91.1% away_-3.5 8.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.1% under_22.5 41.9% over_24.5 45.3%
under_24.5 54.7% over_26.5 33.3% under_26.5 66.7%
over_28.5 23.0% under_28.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.7% under_10.5 28.3% over_12.5 55.1%
under_12.5 44.9% over_14.5 38.6% under_14.5 61.4%
team_away
over_10.5 48.1% under_10.5 51.9% over_12.5 30.3%
under_12.5 69.7% over_14.5 17.0% under_14.5 83.0%
most
home 64.3% draw 5.9% away 29.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.7% away_+4.5 61.3% home_-2.5 51.5%
away_+2.5 48.5% home_-0.5 64.3% away_+0.5 35.8%
home_+0.5 70.2% away_-0.5 29.8% home_+2.5 80.4%
away_-2.5 19.6% home_+4.5 88.1% away_-4.5 11.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.1% under_6.5 29.9% over_7.5 57.3%
under_7.5 42.7% over_8.5 44.3% under_8.5 55.7%
over_9.5 32.5% under_9.5 67.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.7% under_3.5 32.3% over_4.5 50.4%
under_4.5 49.6% over_5.5 34.3% under_5.5 65.7%
team_away
over_3.5 46.2% under_3.5 53.8% over_4.5 28.5%
under_4.5 71.5% over_5.5 15.8% under_5.5 84.3%
most
home 59.0% draw 12.4% away 28.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.1% away_+2.5 66.9% home_-0.5 59.0%
away_+0.5 41.0% home_+0.5 71.4% away_-0.5 28.6%
home_+2.5 89.1% away_-2.5 10.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 84.4% under_2.5 15.6% over_3.5 68.9%
under_3.5 31.1% over_4.5 51.0% under_4.5 49.0%
over_5.5 34.1% under_5.5 65.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 66.1% under_1.5 33.9% over_2.5 40.2%
under_2.5 59.8%
team_away
over_1.5 69.2% under_1.5 30.9% over_2.5 43.8%
under_2.5 56.2%
most
home 38.3% draw 18.5% away 43.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.4% away_+1.5 77.6% home_-0.5 38.3%
away_+0.5 61.7% home_+0.5 56.8% away_-0.5 43.2%
home_+1.5 73.7% away_-1.5 26.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 83.6% under_20.5 16.4% over_22.5 73.0%
under_22.5 27.0% over_24.5 60.4% under_24.5 39.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.7% under_9.5 21.3% over_11.5 60.9%
under_11.5 39.1% over_13.5 41.8% under_13.5 58.2%
team_away
over_9.5 81.9% under_9.5 18.1% over_11.5 65.5%
under_11.5 34.6% over_13.5 46.7% under_13.5 53.3%
most
home 43.2% draw 6.8% away 50.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-0.5 43.2%
away_+0.5 56.8% home_+2.5 63.3% away_-2.5 36.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.5% no 76.5%
home
yes 13.7% no 86.3%
away
yes 11.3% no 88.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Alaves predictions · Osasuna predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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