ChampionshipLincoln vs Portsmouth Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.4% for over 2.5 to 16.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. Head to head on cards, Portsmouth are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 21.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.9% | 83.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.8%
23.5%
60.1%
33.0%
Card handicap
| Lincoln line | Lincoln | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| -0.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| +0.5 | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| +1.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 45.0% | 55.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.5% | 69.5% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lincoln vs Portsmouth. Slightly more cards are projected for Portsmouth for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.5%Over 3.5 cards6.7%Any red card49.8%Lincoln over 1.5 cards60.1%Portsmouth over 1.5 cards45.0%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Lincoln over 1.5 cards sits at 49.8% and Portsmouth at 60.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.7% (Lincoln 3.0%, Portsmouth 3.8%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.5% for Lincoln vs Portsmouth.
Will there be a red card in Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 6.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated Portsmouth to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.