ChampionshipLincoln vs Portsmouth Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 45.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 58.6% for over 22.5 to 23.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.9%. On the shot count, Lincoln are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.6%, with a level count at 5.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.6% | 76.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.1%
55.7%
39.4%
48.1%
30.4%
17.2%
Shot handicap
| Lincoln line | Lincoln | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| -2.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| -0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| +0.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.0% | 71.0% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Lincoln.
In-depth analysis
45.9%Over 24.5 shots55.7%Lincoln over 12.5 shots30.4%Portsmouth over 12.5 shots52.8%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Lincoln over 12.5 shots sits at 55.7% and Portsmouth at 30.4%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 45.9% for Lincoln vs Portsmouth.
Which team will have more shots in Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lincoln to take more shots at 64.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.