Serie A
Juventus vs 
Parma Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 45.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.1% for over 2.5 to 14.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.8%. Head to head on cards, Parma are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.8%, with a level count at 21.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.5% | 85.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
45.6%
20.7%
57.0%
30.6%
Card handicap
| Juventus line | Juventus | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| -0.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| +0.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| +1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 40.8% | 59.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Juventus vs Parma. It tips Parma for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
45.8%Over 3.5 cards16.9%Any red card45.6%Juventus over 1.5 cards57.0%Parma over 1.5 cards54.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Juventus over 1.5 cards sits at 45.6% and Parma at 57.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.9% (Juventus 8.8%, Parma 8.9%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Juventus vs Parma?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 45.8% for Juventus vs Parma.
Will there be a red card in Juventus vs Parma?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Juventus vs Parma?
Before kickoff, the model rated Parma to pick up more cards at 46.8%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.