2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 72.4% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 90.5% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 86.9% for over 2.5 to 37.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.6%. Head to head on cards, Nurnberg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 18.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.9% | 13.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.6% | 45.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.0% | 63.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
66.6%
40.0%
74.0%
49.1%
Card handicap
| Holstein Kiel line | Holstein Kiel | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| -0.5 | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| +0.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| +1.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 53.8% | 46.2% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg. Slightly more cards are projected for Nurnberg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
72.4%Over 3.5 cards9.5%Any red card66.6%Holstein Kiel over 1.5 cards74.0%Nurnberg over 1.5 cards67.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Holstein Kiel over 1.5 cards sits at 66.6% and Nurnberg at 74.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.5% (Holstein Kiel 4.5%, Nurnberg 5.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.4% for Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg.
Will there be a red card in Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Nurnberg to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 18.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.