2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 61.9% and it landed (33 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 70.1% and it landed (10 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 61.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.7% for over 22.5 to 36.9% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.2%. On the shot count, Holstein Kiel are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.3%, with a level count at 6.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 36.9% | 63.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.8%
63.2%
46.1%
64.4%
45.7%
29.0%
Shot handicap
| Holstein Kiel line | Holstein Kiel | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| -2.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| -0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| +0.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 80.6% | 19.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 46.2% | 53.8% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Holstein Kiel.
In-depth analysis
61.9%Over 24.5 shots63.2%Holstein Kiel over 12.5 shots45.7%Nurnberg over 12.5 shots70.1%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Holstein Kiel over 12.5 shots sits at 63.2% and Nurnberg at 45.7%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 61.9% for Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg.
Which team will have more shots in Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Holstein Kiel to take more shots at 59.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.