Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs 
AZ Alkmaar Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 59.1% and it missed (7 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 56.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 80.2% for over 7.5 to 27.0% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.5%. On the corner count, Heerenveen are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 48.2%, with a level count at 9.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 8.5 corners | 70.3% | 29.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| 10.5 corners | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 27.0% | 73.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
73.9%
59.3%
44.7%
70.0%
54.6%
39.8%
Corner handicap
| Heerenveen line | Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| -0.5 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| +0.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| +1.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Heerenveen.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Heerenveen over 4.5 corners sits at 59.3% and AZ Alkmaar at 54.6%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 59.1% for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar.
Which team will win the corner count in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Before kickoff, the model rated Heerenveen to win the corner count at 48.2%, with a level count at 9.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.