Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs 
AZ Alkmaar Correct Score
Result
Final score 2-3. The model gave that exact scoreline 3.6%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 11.3% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Heerenveen have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, AZ Alkmaar 3.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 59.8% for over 2.5 and 82.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 5.0 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
| 0-1 | 7.2% |
| 0-2 | 6.6% |
| 2-2 | 6.4% |
| 1-0 | 5.7% |
| 1-3 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| Heerenveen \ AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Heerenveen goals, columns = AZ Alkmaar. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
62.0%Both Teams to Score59.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 59.8% for three or more goals and 82.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With AZ Alkmaar favoured at 44.7%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Heerenveen 2 · 1 draws · AZ Alkmaar 2 · 5.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar finished 2-3. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 11.3%; it gave the actual 2-3 a 3.6% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.