Eredivisie
Go Ahead Eagles vs 
Sparta Rotterdam Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 65.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 75.5% for over 22.5 to 43.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. On the shot count, Go Ahead Eagles are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.4%, with a level count at 5.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 43.7% | 56.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.4%
65.1%
50.5%
65.5%
49.5%
34.6%
Shot handicap
| Go Ahead Eagles line | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.4% | 63.7% |
| -2.5 | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| -0.5 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| +0.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 84.8% | 15.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 55.7% | 44.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
15.3Go Ahead Eagles shots per game16.5Go Ahead Eagles shots faced per game13.5Sparta Rotterdam shots per game17.2Sparta Rotterdam shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Go Ahead Eagles.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
65.5%Over 24.5 shots65.1%Go Ahead Eagles over 12.5 shots49.5%Sparta Rotterdam over 12.5 shots76.3%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Go Ahead Eagles over 12.5 shots sits at 65.1% and Sparta Rotterdam at 49.5%. This season Go Ahead Eagles have averaged 15.3 shots a game and Sparta Rotterdam 13.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 65.5% for Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam.
Which team will have more shots in Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model rates Go Ahead Eagles to take more shots at 58.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
