Süper Lig
Gaziantep vs 
Fenerbahce Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 55.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.3% for over 22.5 to 32.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.5%. On the shot count, Gaziantep are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.3%, with a level count at 5.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 32.5% | 67.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.0%
56.0%
40.0%
61.5%
44.1%
28.8%
Shot handicap
| Gaziantep line | Gaziantep | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| -2.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| -0.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| +0.5 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Gaziantep.
In-depth analysis
55.5%Over 24.5 shots56.0%Gaziantep over 12.5 shots44.1%Fenerbahce over 12.5 shots68.3%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Gaziantep over 12.5 shots sits at 56.0% and Fenerbahce at 44.1%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 55.5% for Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce.
Which team will have more shots in Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce?
The model rates Gaziantep to take more shots at 55.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.