Bundesliga
Freiburg vs 
Werder Bremen Corners
Result
We called Under 9.5 at 51.9% and it missed (11 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 47.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 72.0% for over 7.5 to 18.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.1%. Head to head on corners, Freiburg are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.2%, with a level count at 10.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 10.5 corners | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.2% | 81.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.3%
59.3%
44.2%
57.6%
40.3%
25.9%
Corner handicap
| Freiburg line | Freiburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| -1.5 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| -0.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| +0.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
This season (2025/26)
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Freiburg.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Freiburg over 4.5 corners sits at 59.3% and Werder Bremen at 40.3%. This season Freiburg have averaged 4.1 corners won a game and Werder Bremen 4.5.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 48.1% for Freiburg vs Werder Bremen.
Which team will win the corner count in Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Freiburg to win the corner count at 57.2%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Freiburg and Werder Bremen average this season?
Freiburg have won 4.1 corners a game this season and Werder Bremen 4.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.