Eredivisie
Feyenoord vs 
Den Haag Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 63.1% and it landed (41 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 73.9% and it landed (15 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 63.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.4% for over 22.5 to 41.2% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. Between the two sides, Feyenoord are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.8%, with a level count at 5.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 41.2% | 58.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.2%
64.9%
50.4%
62.0%
45.8%
31.3%
Shot handicap
| Feyenoord line | Feyenoord | Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| -2.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| -0.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| +0.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 52.7% | 47.3% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Feyenoord.
In-depth analysis
63.1%Over 24.5 shots64.9%Feyenoord over 12.5 shots45.8%Den Haag over 12.5 shots73.9%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Feyenoord over 12.5 shots sits at 64.9% and Den Haag at 45.8%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Feyenoord vs Den Haag?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 63.1% for Feyenoord vs Den Haag.
Which team will have more shots in Feyenoord vs Den Haag?
Before kickoff, the model rated Feyenoord to take more shots at 60.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.