Segunda DivisiónEldense vs 
Cadiz Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 69.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 85.2% for over 2.5 to 34.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. On the card count, Cadiz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 18.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.2% | 14.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 34.0% | 66.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.1%
37.3%
72.5%
47.2%
Card handicap
| Eldense line | Eldense | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| -0.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| +0.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| +1.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.5% | 42.5% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Eldense vs Cadiz. Slightly more cards are projected for Cadiz for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
69.8%Over 3.5 cards13.8%Any red card64.1%Eldense over 1.5 cards72.5%Cadiz over 1.5 cards70.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Eldense over 1.5 cards sits at 64.1% and Cadiz at 72.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.8% (Eldense 5.1%, Cadiz 9.2%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Eldense vs Cadiz?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 69.8% for Eldense vs Cadiz.
Will there be a red card in Eldense vs Cadiz?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Eldense vs Cadiz?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cadiz to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 18.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.