2. BundesligaDresden vs 
Darmstadt Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.5% for over 2.5 to 20.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. Between the two sides, Darmstadt are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.4%, with a level count at 20.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.8% | 79.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.4%
28.4%
62.0%
35.0%
Card handicap
| Dresden line | Dresden | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.2% | 81.8% |
| -0.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| +0.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| +1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.3% | 60.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Dresden cards per game11.0Dresden fouls per game2.0Darmstadt cards per game15.0Darmstadt fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dresden vs Darmstadt. Slightly more cards are projected for Darmstadt for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.8%Over 3.5 cards21.0%Any red card55.4%Dresden over 1.5 cards62.0%Darmstadt over 1.5 cards53.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Dresden over 1.5 cards sits at 55.4% and Darmstadt at 62.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.0% (Dresden 13.2%, Darmstadt 9.0%). This season Dresden have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Darmstadt 2.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Dresden vs Darmstadt?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.8% for Dresden vs Darmstadt.
Will there be a red card in Dresden vs Darmstadt?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Dresden vs Darmstadt?
Before kickoff, the model rated Darmstadt to pick up more cards at 44.4%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.