Hannover vs Wolfsburg: model prediction
2. BundesligaHannover or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Hannover at 63.5%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 61.1% and it missed (1 goals). We called Yes at 56.2% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Hannover heavy favourites at 64% when Hannover meet Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga on 16 August 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Hannover than the market (38%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. The run in: Hannover arrive W1 D4 L1, Wolfsburg W0 D1 L0. Wolfsburg are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
63.5%+25.8%
20.6%-5.9%
15.9%-19.9%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Wolfsburg100.0%0.0%
100.0%0.0%
0.0%100.0%
League averages this season: 3.44 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 67%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 4.26
@ 1.92
@ 1.97
@ 5.88
@ 2.15
@ 2.65
@ 3.94
@ 1.89
@ 1.53
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 80.6% | Over 7.5 | 70.3% | Over 8.5 | 58.5% | Over 9.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Hannover | 55.2% | Most: Wolfsburg | 33.0% | ||||
| Hannover Over 4.2 | 57.5% | Wolfsburg Over 4.2 | 41.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 80.5% | Over 3.5 | 62.6% | Over 4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Hannover | 33.7% | Most: Wolfsburg | 46.7% | ||
| Hannover Over 1.8 | 59.0% | Wolfsburg Over 1.8 | 67.7% |
Wolfsburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dzenan Pejcinovic | 3.18 | 1.37 | 0.5 | 52.0% | 50.7% | 23.5% |
| Tiago Tomás | 1.97 | 0.94 | 0.28 | 46.5% | 37.8% | 17.0% |
| Mohammed Amoura | 2.74 | 0.93 | 0.36 | 53.0% | 65.2% | 25.4% |
| Jonas Wind | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.37 | 36.4% | 32.5% | 21.3% |
| Mattias Svanberg | 1.85 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 28.9% | 24.8% | 12.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Hannover clean sheet | 36.1% |
|---|---|
| Wolfsburg clean sheet | 11.5% |
| Hannover win to nil | 31.4% |
| Wolfsburg win to nil | 6.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 63.5% | draw | 20.6% | away | 15.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 84.1% | 12 | 79.4% | X2 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 80.0% | away | 20.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 56.3% | no | 43.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 36.9% | away | 11.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 32.2% | away | 6.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.9% | home_by_2 | 19.3% | home_by_3plus | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 10.3% | away_by_2 | 4.1% | away_by_3plus | 1.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.7% | 0-1 | 3.8% | 0-2 | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 1-1 | 9.6% | 1-2 | 4.6% |
| 1-3 | 1.5% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.2% | 3-1 | 7.1% | 3-2 | 3.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.9% | 4-1 | 3.9% | 4-2 | 1.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.7% | 5-1 | 1.7% | 5-2 | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.3% | under_0.5 | 4.7% | over_1.5 | 82.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 17.2% | over_2.5 | 61.1% | under_2.5 | 38.9% |
| over_3.5 | 38.8% | under_3.5 | 61.2% | over_4.5 | 21.2% |
| under_4.5 | 78.8% | over_5.5 | 10.1% | under_5.5 | 90.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 88.5% | under_0.5 | 11.5% | over_1.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 36.4% | over_2.5 | 36.7% | under_2.5 | 63.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 63.1% | under_0.5 | 36.9% | over_1.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.7% | over_2.5 | 8.0% | under_2.5 | 92.0% |
most
| home | 63.5% | draw | 20.6% | away | 15.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 21.3% | away_+2.5 | 78.7% | home_-1.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.4% | home_-0.5 | 63.5% | away_+0.5 | 36.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 84.1% | away_-0.5 | 15.9% | home_+1.5 | 94.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 5.6% | home_+2.5 | 98.5% | away_-2.5 | 1.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.7% | exact_1 | 12.5% | exact_2 | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 17.6% | exact_5 | 11.1% |
| exact_6 | 5.9% | exact_7plus | 4.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.2% | draw | 42.1% | away | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.8% | under_0.5 | 31.2% | over_1.5 | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.5% | over_2.5 | 11.3% | under_2.5 | 88.7% |
btts
| yes | 18.6% | no | 81.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.2% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.2% | exact_4plus | 3.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.9% | draw | 37.7% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.6% | under_0.5 | 24.4% | over_1.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.8% | over_2.5 | 16.9% | under_2.5 | 83.1% |
btts
| yes | 25.0% | no | 75.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.3% | H/D | 5.2% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.0% | D/D | 15.9% | D/A | 10.2% |
| A/H | 2.2% | A/D | 4.5% | A/A | 14.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.8% | under_7.5 | 21.2% | over_8.5 | 68.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 31.5% | over_9.5 | 57.1% | under_9.5 | 42.9% |
| over_10.5 | 45.5% | under_10.5 | 54.5% | over_11.5 | 34.6% |
| under_11.5 | 65.4% | over_12.5 | 25.2% | under_12.5 | 74.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.5% | under_3.5 | 20.5% | over_4.5 | 65.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.1% | over_5.5 | 51.2% | under_5.5 | 48.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.5% | under_3.5 | 37.5% | over_4.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.7% | over_5.5 | 30.3% | under_5.5 | 69.7% |
most
| home | 58.8% | draw | 10.0% | away | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.3% | away_+3.5 | 71.7% | home_-1.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.8% | home_-0.5 | 58.8% | away_+0.5 | 41.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.8% | away_-0.5 | 31.2% | home_+1.5 | 77.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.4% | home_+3.5 | 90.1% | away_-3.5 | 9.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 74.2% | under_22.5 | 25.9% | over_24.5 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 37.5% | over_26.5 | 50.0% | under_26.5 | 50.0% |
| over_28.5 | 37.7% | under_28.5 | 62.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 79.7% | under_10.5 | 20.3% | over_12.5 | 64.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 35.6% | over_14.5 | 47.6% | under_14.5 | 52.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 63.8% | under_10.5 | 36.2% | over_12.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 54.8% | over_14.5 | 28.7% | under_14.5 | 71.3% |
most
| home | 60.5% | draw | 6.0% | away | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.5% | away_+4.5 | 64.5% | home_-2.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.1% | home_-0.5 | 60.5% | away_+0.5 | 39.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.5% | home_+2.5 | 77.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.8% | home_+4.5 | 85.6% | away_-4.5 | 14.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 80.6% | under_6.5 | 19.4% | over_7.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 29.7% | over_8.5 | 58.6% | under_8.5 | 41.4% |
| over_9.5 | 46.6% | under_9.5 | 53.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.4% | under_3.5 | 26.6% | over_4.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.5% | over_5.5 | 41.6% | under_5.5 | 58.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.4% | under_3.5 | 40.6% | over_4.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.6% | over_5.5 | 26.3% | under_5.5 | 73.7% |
most
| home | 55.2% | draw | 11.8% | away | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.5% | away_+2.5 | 68.5% | home_-0.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.8% | home_+0.5 | 67.0% | away_-0.5 | 33.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.4% | away_-2.5 | 14.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 80.5% | under_2.5 | 19.5% | over_3.5 | 62.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 37.4% | over_4.5 | 43.3% | under_4.5 | 56.7% |
| over_5.5 | 26.6% | under_5.5 | 73.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 59.0% | under_1.5 | 41.0% | over_2.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 67.7% | under_1.5 | 32.3% | over_2.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.7% |
most
| home | 33.7% | draw | 19.6% | away | 46.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.9% | away_+1.5 | 82.1% | home_-0.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.3% | home_+0.5 | 53.3% | away_-0.5 | 46.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.9% | away_-1.5 | 28.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 76.0% | under_20.5 | 24.0% | over_22.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 37.0% | over_24.5 | 48.9% | under_24.5 | 51.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 69.5% | under_9.5 | 30.5% | over_11.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.0% | over_13.5 | 30.0% | under_13.5 | 70.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 79.3% | under_9.5 | 20.7% | over_11.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 38.5% | over_13.5 | 42.2% | under_13.5 | 57.8% |
most
| home | 37.6% | draw | 7.0% | away | 55.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.7% | away_+3.5 | 80.3% | home_-0.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.4% | home_+2.5 | 58.8% | away_-2.5 | 41.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 12.3% | no | 87.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.1% | no | 91.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Hannover predictions · Wolfsburg predictions · 2. Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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