La LigaDep. A Coruna vs 
Elche Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 45.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 58.4% for over 22.5 to 23.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.5%. On the shot count, Dep. A Coruna are the model’s pick to have more shots at 68.8%, with a level count at 5.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.0% | 77.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.6%
58.5%
42.0%
44.5%
27.0%
14.6%
Shot handicap
| Dep. A Coruna line | Dep. A Coruna | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| -2.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| -0.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| +0.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 35.4% | 64.6% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Dep. A Coruna.
In-depth analysis
45.5%Over 24.5 shots58.5%Dep. A Coruna over 12.5 shots27.0%Elche over 12.5 shots60.3%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Dep. A Coruna over 12.5 shots sits at 58.5% and Elche at 27.0%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Dep. A Coruna vs Elche?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 45.5% for Dep. A Coruna vs Elche.
Which team will have more shots in Dep. A Coruna vs Elche?
Before kickoff, the model rated Dep. A Coruna to take more shots at 68.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.