Den Haag vs Groningen: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Groningen
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Groningen at 44.3%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 54.4% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 57.7% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Den Haag or Groningen? We publish probabilities, not certainties." The model leans Groningen at 44% when Den Haag host Groningen in the Eredivisie on 16 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Notably, the model is warmer on Groningen than the market (40%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. Form guide over the last six: Den Haag W2 D0 L4, Groningen W3 D1 L2. As a promoted side, Den Haag carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The recent series reads 1 wins for Den Haag, 1 draws and 3 for Groningen over 5 games, 1.6 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7))).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
29.9%-4.8%
25.8%+0.7%
44.3%+4.1%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Den Haag 1 · 1 draws · Groningen 3 · 1.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Den Haag
Groningen0.0%100.0%
0.0%100.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 82.6% | Over 7.5 | 73.6% | Over 8.5 | 63.2% | Over 9.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Den Haag | 48.6% | Most: Groningen | 40.3% | ||||
| Den Haag Over 4.2 | 56.1% | Groningen Over 4.2 | 50.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | Over 3.5 | 32.9% | Over 4.5 | 16.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Den Haag | 28.5% | Most: Groningen | 47.3% | ||
| Den Haag Over 1.8 | 35.0% | Groningen Over 1.8 | 49.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Den Haag clean sheet | 20.4% |
|---|---|
| Groningen clean sheet | 28.0% |
| Den Haag win to nil | 14.1% |
| Groningen win to nil | 21.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 29.9% | draw | 25.8% | away | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 55.7% | 12 | 74.2% | X2 | 70.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 40.3% | away | 59.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 57.7% | no | 42.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 20.4% | away | 28.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.1% | away | 21.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.0% | home_by_2 | 8.6% | home_by_3plus | 4.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.4% | away_by_2 | 13.5% | away_by_3plus | 9.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.3% | 0-1 | 8.5% | 0-2 | 7.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.9% | 0-4 | 1.5% | 0-5 | 0.5% |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 1-1 | 12.1% | 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-3 | 4.9% | 1-4 | 1.9% | 1-5 | 0.6% |
| 2-0 | 4.6% | 2-1 | 7.3% | 2-2 | 5.8% |
| 2-3 | 3.1% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 2.0% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.7% | under_0.5 | 6.3% | over_1.5 | 78.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.6% | over_2.5 | 54.4% | under_2.5 | 45.6% |
| over_3.5 | 32.1% | under_3.5 | 67.9% | over_4.5 | 16.2% |
| under_4.5 | 83.9% | over_5.5 | 7.0% | under_5.5 | 93.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 71.8% | under_0.5 | 28.2% | over_1.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.8% | over_2.5 | 13.6% | under_2.5 | 86.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 79.6% | under_0.5 | 20.4% | over_1.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.8% | over_2.5 | 21.4% | under_2.5 | 78.6% |
most
| home | 29.9% | draw | 25.8% | away | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.3% | away_+2.5 | 95.7% | home_-1.5 | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 87.0% | home_-0.5 | 29.9% | away_+0.5 | 70.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 55.7% | away_-0.5 | 44.3% | home_+1.5 | 77.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.9% | home_+2.5 | 90.6% | away_-2.5 | 9.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.3% | exact_1 | 15.3% | exact_2 | 24.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 15.9% | exact_5 | 9.1% |
| exact_6 | 4.3% | exact_7plus | 2.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.5% | draw | 45.0% | away | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 65.2% | under_0.5 | 34.8% | over_1.5 | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.5% | over_2.5 | 9.1% | under_2.5 | 90.9% |
btts
| yes | 16.6% | no | 83.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.8% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.8% | exact_4plus | 2.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.2% | draw | 34.7% | away | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.7% | under_0.5 | 19.3% | over_1.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.0% | over_2.5 | 22.9% | under_2.5 | 77.1% |
btts
| yes | 31.4% | no | 68.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.4% | H/D | 6.0% | H/A | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.6% | D/D | 15.6% | D/A | 15.8% |
| A/H | 1.9% | A/D | 4.2% | A/A | 17.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.5% | under_7.5 | 20.5% | over_8.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.6% | over_9.5 | 58.1% | under_9.5 | 41.9% |
| over_10.5 | 46.5% | under_10.5 | 53.5% | over_11.5 | 35.7% |
| under_11.5 | 64.3% | over_12.5 | 26.2% | under_12.5 | 73.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.6% | under_3.5 | 24.4% | over_4.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.5% | over_5.5 | 47.0% | under_5.5 | 53.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.7% | under_3.5 | 33.3% | over_4.5 | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.2% | over_5.5 | 36.1% | under_5.5 | 63.9% |
most
| home | 52.2% | draw | 9.7% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.7% | away_+3.5 | 75.3% | home_-1.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.7% | home_-0.5 | 52.2% | away_+0.5 | 47.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.9% | away_-0.5 | 38.1% | home_+1.5 | 70.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 29.1% | home_+3.5 | 85.2% | away_-3.5 | 14.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.5% | under_22.5 | 28.5% | over_24.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 38.9% | over_26.5 | 50.1% | under_26.5 | 49.9% |
| over_28.5 | 39.3% | under_28.5 | 60.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.4% | under_10.5 | 25.6% | over_12.5 | 60.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 39.8% | over_14.5 | 45.5% | under_14.5 | 54.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 64.0% | under_10.5 | 36.0% | over_12.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.9% | over_14.5 | 33.5% | under_14.5 | 66.6% |
most
| home | 55.8% | draw | 5.5% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.9% | away_+4.5 | 66.1% | home_-2.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 55.4% | home_-0.5 | 55.8% | away_+0.5 | 44.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% | home_+2.5 | 71.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 28.6% | home_+4.5 | 80.1% | away_-4.5 | 19.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 82.6% | under_6.5 | 17.4% | over_7.5 | 73.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 26.4% | over_8.5 | 63.2% | under_8.5 | 36.8% |
| over_9.5 | 52.4% | under_9.5 | 47.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.3% | under_3.5 | 28.7% | over_4.5 | 56.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.9% | over_5.5 | 41.3% | under_5.5 | 58.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.3% | under_3.5 | 33.7% | over_4.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.8% | over_5.5 | 35.5% | under_5.5 | 64.5% |
most
| home | 48.6% | draw | 11.0% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.9% | away_+2.5 | 72.1% | home_-0.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.4% | home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 78.8% | away_-2.5 | 21.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 55.3% | under_2.5 | 44.7% | over_3.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 67.1% | over_4.5 | 16.7% | under_4.5 | 83.3% |
| over_5.5 | 7.4% | under_5.5 | 92.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 35.0% | under_1.5 | 65.0% | over_2.5 | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 87.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 49.4% | under_1.5 | 50.6% | over_2.5 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 76.8% |
most
| home | 28.5% | draw | 24.2% | away | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.8% | away_+1.5 | 88.2% | home_-0.5 | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.5% | home_+0.5 | 52.7% | away_-0.5 | 47.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.1% | away_-1.5 | 24.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 52.2% | under_20.5 | 47.8% | over_22.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 63.0% | over_24.5 | 23.9% | under_24.5 | 76.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 54.6% | under_9.5 | 45.5% | over_11.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 67.2% | over_13.5 | 16.7% | under_13.5 | 83.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 62.5% | under_9.5 | 37.5% | over_11.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.2% | over_13.5 | 22.8% | under_13.5 | 77.2% |
most
| home | 40.3% | draw | 7.9% | away | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.0% | away_+3.5 | 80.0% | home_-0.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.7% | home_+2.5 | 63.7% | away_-2.5 | 36.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.1% | no | 88.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.8% | no | 93.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Den Haag predictions · Groningen predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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