Feyenoord vs Go Ahead Eagles: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
Feyenoord or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Feyenoord at 58.9%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 63.3% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 60.5% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Feyenoord at 59% against Go Ahead Eagles, Eredivisie, 16 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Feyenoord at 71%. Caution noted. • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 63% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. • Form guide over the last six: Feyenoord W4 D2 L0, Go Ahead Eagles W1 D3 L2. • The recent series reads 4 wins for Feyenoord, 0 draws and 1 for Go Ahead Eagles over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.12)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
58.9%-12.5%
21.5%+4.8%
19.6%+7.7%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.12)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Feyenoord 4 · 0 draws · Go Ahead Eagles 1 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Feyenoord
Go Ahead Eagles0.0%100.0%
0.0%100.0%
100.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 84.2% | Over 7.5 | 75.7% | Over 8.5 | 65.9% | Over 9.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Feyenoord | 67.2% | Most: Go Ahead Eagles | 23.4% | ||||
| Feyenoord Over 4.2 | 69.4% | Go Ahead Eagles Over 4.2 | 37.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | Over 3.5 | 34.0% | Over 4.5 | 17.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Feyenoord | 27.3% | Most: Go Ahead Eagles | 48.9% | ||
| Feyenoord Over 1.8 | 34.6% | Go Ahead Eagles Over 1.8 | 51.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Feyenoord clean sheet | 31.0% |
|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet | 12.1% |
| Feyenoord win to nil | 26.7% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win to nil | 7.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 58.9% | draw | 21.5% | away | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 80.4% | 12 | 78.5% | X2 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 75.1% | away | 24.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.5% | no | 39.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.7% | away | 12.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.4% | away | 7.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.3% | home_by_2 | 17.9% | home_by_3plus | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.0% | away_by_2 | 5.3% | away_by_3plus | 2.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.3% | 0-1 | 4.0% | 0-2 | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.6% | 1-1 | 9.8% | 1-2 | 5.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 5.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.0% | 3-1 | 6.9% | 3-2 | 4.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.5% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.2% | 4-1 | 3.7% | 4-2 | 2.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.3% | 5-1 | 1.5% | 5-2 | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.7% | under_0.5 | 4.3% | over_1.5 | 84.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 15.9% | over_2.5 | 63.3% | under_2.5 | 36.7% |
| over_3.5 | 41.1% | under_3.5 | 58.9% | over_4.5 | 23.0% |
| under_4.5 | 77.0% | over_5.5 | 11.3% | under_5.5 | 88.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 87.9% | under_0.5 | 12.1% | over_1.5 | 62.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 37.7% | over_2.5 | 35.3% | under_2.5 | 64.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.3% | under_0.5 | 31.7% | over_1.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.1% | over_2.5 | 11.0% | under_2.5 | 89.0% |
most
| home | 58.9% | draw | 21.5% | away | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 18.6% | away_+2.5 | 81.4% | home_-1.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 63.4% | home_-0.5 | 58.9% | away_+0.5 | 41.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 80.4% | away_-0.5 | 19.6% | home_+1.5 | 92.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.6% | home_+2.5 | 97.7% | away_-2.5 | 2.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.3% | exact_1 | 11.6% | exact_2 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 18.1% | exact_5 | 11.8% |
| exact_6 | 6.4% | exact_7plus | 4.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 51.4% | draw | 32.8% | away | 15.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.5% | under_0.5 | 20.5% | over_1.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.0% | over_2.5 | 21.3% | under_2.5 | 78.7% |
btts
| yes | 25.4% | no | 74.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 20.5% | exact_1 | 32.5% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 13.6% | exact_4plus | 7.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.2% | draw | 33.7% | away | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.3% | under_0.5 | 18.7% | over_1.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.0% | over_2.5 | 23.7% | under_2.5 | 76.3% |
btts
| yes | 31.1% | no | 68.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 43.2% | H/D | 6.0% | H/A | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.8% | D/D | 11.0% | D/A | 7.9% |
| A/H | 2.2% | A/D | 3.6% | A/A | 10.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 81.0% | under_7.5 | 19.0% | over_8.5 | 71.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 28.6% | over_9.5 | 60.4% | under_9.5 | 39.6% |
| over_10.5 | 48.9% | under_10.5 | 51.1% | over_11.5 | 38.0% |
| under_11.5 | 62.0% | over_12.5 | 28.2% | under_12.5 | 71.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 81.1% | under_3.5 | 18.9% | over_4.5 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 31.3% | over_5.5 | 55.0% | under_5.5 | 45.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.4% | under_3.5 | 38.6% | over_4.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.1% | over_5.5 | 30.5% | under_5.5 | 69.5% |
most
| home | 61.1% | draw | 9.0% | away | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.6% | away_+3.5 | 67.4% | home_-1.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 48.6% | home_-0.5 | 61.1% | away_+0.5 | 38.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.1% | away_-0.5 | 29.9% | home_+1.5 | 78.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.9% | home_+3.5 | 89.7% | away_-3.5 | 10.3% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 74.3% | under_22.5 | 25.7% | over_24.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 35.8% | over_26.5 | 53.2% | under_26.5 | 46.8% |
| over_28.5 | 42.1% | under_28.5 | 57.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 82.3% | under_10.5 | 17.7% | over_12.5 | 70.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 29.6% | over_14.5 | 56.6% | under_14.5 | 43.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.9% | under_10.5 | 43.2% | over_12.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.5% | over_14.5 | 26.6% | under_14.5 | 73.4% |
most
| home | 68.3% | draw | 4.8% | away | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 46.6% | away_+4.5 | 53.4% | home_-2.5 | 57.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 42.2% | home_-0.5 | 68.3% | away_+0.5 | 31.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.1% | away_-0.5 | 26.9% | home_+2.5 | 81.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.6% | home_+4.5 | 87.9% | away_-4.5 | 12.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 84.2% | under_6.5 | 15.8% | over_7.5 | 75.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 24.3% | over_8.5 | 65.9% | under_8.5 | 34.1% |
| over_9.5 | 55.3% | under_9.5 | 44.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 81.6% | under_3.5 | 18.4% | over_4.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 30.6% | over_5.5 | 55.9% | under_5.5 | 44.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.6% | under_3.5 | 45.4% | over_4.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.4% | over_5.5 | 24.0% | under_5.5 | 76.0% |
most
| home | 67.2% | draw | 9.3% | away | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 46.0% | away_+2.5 | 54.0% | home_-0.5 | 67.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 32.8% | home_+0.5 | 76.6% | away_-0.5 | 23.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.0% | away_-2.5 | 10.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 56.4% | under_2.5 | 43.6% | over_3.5 | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 66.0% | over_4.5 | 17.5% | under_4.5 | 82.5% |
| over_5.5 | 7.8% | under_5.5 | 92.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 34.6% | under_1.5 | 65.4% | over_2.5 | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 87.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 51.2% | under_1.5 | 48.8% | over_2.5 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 75.3% |
most
| home | 27.3% | draw | 23.8% | away | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.2% | away_+1.5 | 88.8% | home_-0.5 | 27.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.7% | home_+0.5 | 51.1% | away_-0.5 | 48.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.7% | away_-1.5 | 26.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 47.6% | under_20.5 | 52.4% | over_22.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 67.4% | over_24.5 | 20.4% | under_24.5 | 79.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 48.6% | under_9.5 | 51.4% | over_11.5 | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 72.6% | over_13.5 | 13.0% | under_13.5 | 87.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 61.9% | under_9.5 | 38.1% | over_11.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.9% | over_13.5 | 22.3% | under_13.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 36.6% | draw | 7.9% | away | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.1% | away_+3.5 | 82.9% | home_-0.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.4% | home_+2.5 | 60.5% | away_-2.5 | 39.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 23.3% | no | 76.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 19.7% | no | 80.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Feyenoord predictions · Go Ahead Eagles predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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