Eredivisie
Cambuur vs 
Twente Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 62.7% and it landed (33 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 74.5% and it landed (13 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 62.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.9% for over 22.5 to 40.9% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.7%. Head to head on shots, Cambuur are the model’s pick to have more shots at 51.5%, with a level count at 5.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 40.9% | 59.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.0%
58.4%
43.6%
67.9%
52.4%
37.5%
Shot handicap
| Cambuur line | Cambuur | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| -0.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| +0.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| +2.5 | 67.6% | 32.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 74.5% | 25.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 53.4% | 46.6% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Cambuur.
In-depth analysis
62.7%Over 24.5 shots58.4%Cambuur over 12.5 shots52.4%Twente over 12.5 shots74.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Cambuur over 12.5 shots sits at 58.4% and Twente at 52.4%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Cambuur vs Twente?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 62.7% for Cambuur vs Twente.
Which team will have more shots in Cambuur vs Twente?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cambuur to take more shots at 51.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.