Premier League
Brighton vs 
Aston Villa Clean Sheet
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely clean sheet at 28.4%, its strongest read on the Clean Sheet market. On the result, Brighton are favoured at 43.7%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Clean Sheet
Probability each side concedes zero, derived from the model score matrix. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Brighton to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Brighton 1 · 1 draws · Aston Villa 3 · 3.2 goals/game.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Clean Sheet-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Clean Sheet
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.