2. BundesligaBraunschweig vs 
Hertha Cards
Result
Settled, final score 3-5. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 67.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 83.9% for over 2.5 to 31.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.0%. Between the two sides, Hertha are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.5%, with a level count at 18.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 67.8% | 32.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.8% | 68.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.7%
32.6%
73.5%
48.4%
Card handicap
| Braunschweig line | Braunschweig | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| -0.5 | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| +0.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| +1.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 44.6% | 55.4% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Braunschweig vs Hertha. The model leans toward Hertha for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
67.8%Over 3.5 cards27.0%Any red card59.7%Braunschweig over 1.5 cards73.5%Hertha over 1.5 cards58.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Braunschweig over 1.5 cards sits at 59.7% and Hertha at 73.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 27.0% (Braunschweig 6.0%, Hertha 22.4%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Braunschweig vs Hertha?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 67.8% for Braunschweig vs Hertha.
Will there be a red card in Braunschweig vs Hertha?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 27.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Braunschweig vs Hertha?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hertha to pick up more cards at 51.5%, with a level count at 18.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.