Clermont vs Sochaux: model prediction
Ligue 2Clermont or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Clermont at 46.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 58.0% and it landed (0 goals). We called No at 52.8% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Clermont or Sochaux? We publish probabilities, not certainties." The model leans Clermont at 46% when Clermont host Sochaux in the Ligue 2 on 28 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Our number sits above the market's 37% for Clermont. The gap itself is information. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 42% with both teams to score at 47%. The run in: Clermont arrive W2 D3 L1, Sochaux W1 D1 L4. Sochaux are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The recent series reads 2 wins for Clermont, 1 draws and 2 for Sochaux over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
46.4%+9.2%
28.4%-0.7%
25.3%-8.4%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Clermont 2 · 1 draws · Sochaux 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
ClermontSochauxLeague averages this season: 2.30 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 37% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.7% | Over 7.5 | 49.6% | Over 8.5 | 37.2% | Over 9.5 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Clermont | 50.1% | Most: Sochaux | 36.7% | ||||
| Clermont Over 4.2 | 39.2% | Sochaux Over 4.2 | 29.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 68.6% | Over 3.5 | 47.1% | Over 4.5 | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Clermont | 37.3% | Most: Sochaux | 40.6% | ||
| Clermont Over 1.8 | 51.5% | Sochaux Over 1.8 | 54.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Clermont clean sheet | 38.1% |
|---|---|
| Sochaux clean sheet | 24.7% |
| Clermont win to nil | 28.0% |
| Sochaux win to nil | 14.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 46.4% | draw | 28.4% | away | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 74.7% | 12 | 71.6% | X2 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 64.7% | away | 35.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.2% | no | 52.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 38.2% | away | 24.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 28.1% | away | 14.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.7% | home_by_2 | 14.1% | home_by_3plus | 8.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.1% | away_by_2 | 6.7% | away_by_3plus | 2.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.1% | 0-1 | 8.4% | 0-2 | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 6.1% |
| 1-3 | 2.0% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 2-1 | 8.9% | 2-2 | 4.3% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.3% | 3-1 | 4.1% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.9% | under_0.5 | 10.1% | over_1.5 | 68.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 31.1% | over_2.5 | 42.0% | under_2.5 | 58.0% |
| over_3.5 | 21.3% | under_3.5 | 78.7% | over_4.5 | 9.1% |
| under_4.5 | 90.9% | over_5.5 | 3.3% | under_5.5 | 96.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 75.3% | under_0.5 | 24.7% | over_1.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.2% | over_2.5 | 16.6% | under_2.5 | 83.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 61.8% | under_0.5 | 38.2% | over_1.5 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.0% | over_2.5 | 7.4% | under_2.5 | 92.6% |
most
| home | 46.4% | draw | 28.4% | away | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.6% | away_+2.5 | 91.4% | home_-1.5 | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 77.3% | home_-0.5 | 46.4% | away_+0.5 | 53.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.8% | away_-0.5 | 25.3% | home_+1.5 | 90.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.2% | home_+2.5 | 97.5% | away_-2.5 | 2.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.1% | exact_1 | 21.0% | exact_2 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.7% | exact_4 | 12.2% | exact_5 | 5.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.3% | exact_7plus | 1.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.6% | draw | 45.5% | away | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.6% | under_0.5 | 35.4% | over_1.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.2% | over_2.5 | 8.7% | under_2.5 | 91.3% |
btts
| yes | 16.2% | no | 83.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.4% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 19.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.6% | exact_4plus | 2.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.5% | draw | 48.0% | away | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 61.2% | under_0.5 | 38.8% | over_1.5 | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.5% | over_2.5 | 7.1% | under_2.5 | 92.9% |
btts
| yes | 14.2% | no | 85.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 24.4% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.1% | D/D | 21.9% | D/A | 11.6% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 4.1% | A/A | 18.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.0% | under_7.5 | 31.0% | over_8.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 43.2% | over_9.5 | 44.6% | under_9.5 | 55.4% |
| over_10.5 | 33.3% | under_10.5 | 66.8% | over_11.5 | 23.6% |
| under_11.5 | 76.4% | over_12.5 | 16.0% | under_12.5 | 84.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.9% | under_3.5 | 31.1% | over_4.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.3% | over_5.5 | 37.3% | under_5.5 | 62.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.3% | under_3.5 | 39.7% | over_4.5 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.9% | over_5.5 | 28.3% | under_5.5 | 71.7% |
most
| home | 50.7% | draw | 11.2% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.4% | away_+3.5 | 79.6% | home_-1.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.5% | home_-0.5 | 50.7% | away_+0.5 | 49.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.9% | away_-0.5 | 38.1% | home_+1.5 | 72.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.8% | home_+3.5 | 87.5% | away_-3.5 | 12.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 51.3% | under_22.5 | 48.7% | over_24.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 61.5% | over_26.5 | 27.2% | under_26.5 | 72.8% |
| over_28.5 | 18.0% | under_28.5 | 82.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 63.9% | under_10.5 | 36.1% | over_12.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.9% | over_14.5 | 30.1% | under_14.5 | 69.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.8% | under_10.5 | 52.2% | over_12.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.0% | over_14.5 | 16.9% | under_14.5 | 83.1% |
most
| home | 58.3% | draw | 6.4% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 32.2% | away_+4.5 | 67.8% | home_-2.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 55.1% | home_-0.5 | 58.3% | away_+0.5 | 41.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.7% | away_-0.5 | 35.3% | home_+2.5 | 76.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.8% | home_+4.5 | 85.2% | away_-4.5 | 14.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.7% | under_6.5 | 37.3% | over_7.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 50.4% | over_8.5 | 37.2% | under_8.5 | 62.8% |
| over_9.5 | 26.4% | under_9.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 56.6% | under_3.5 | 43.4% | over_4.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.8% | over_5.5 | 24.9% | under_5.5 | 75.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.1% | under_3.5 | 52.9% | over_4.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.1% | over_5.5 | 17.3% | under_5.5 | 82.7% |
most
| home | 50.1% | draw | 13.2% | away | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.3% | away_+2.5 | 74.7% | home_-0.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.0% | home_+0.5 | 63.3% | away_-0.5 | 36.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.3% | away_-2.5 | 15.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 68.6% | under_2.5 | 31.4% | over_3.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 52.9% | over_4.5 | 28.1% | under_4.5 | 71.9% |
| over_5.5 | 14.7% | under_5.5 | 85.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 51.5% | under_1.5 | 48.5% | over_2.5 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 75.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 54.0% | under_1.5 | 46.0% | over_2.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.8% |
most
| home | 37.3% | draw | 22.1% | away | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.0% | away_+1.5 | 81.0% | home_-0.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.7% | home_+0.5 | 59.4% | away_-0.5 | 40.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.5% | away_-1.5 | 21.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.7% | under_20.5 | 13.3% | over_22.5 | 76.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 23.2% | over_24.5 | 64.2% | under_24.5 | 35.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 76.1% | under_9.5 | 23.8% | over_11.5 | 56.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.6% | over_13.5 | 36.3% | under_13.5 | 63.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 88.5% | under_9.5 | 11.5% | over_11.5 | 74.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 25.2% | over_13.5 | 56.7% | under_13.5 | 43.4% |
most
| home | 32.6% | draw | 6.6% | away | 60.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 16.3% | away_+3.5 | 83.7% | home_-0.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.4% | home_+2.5 | 53.2% | away_-2.5 | 46.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 12.5% | no | 87.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.9% | no | 93.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Clermont predictions · Sochaux predictions · Ligue 2
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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