2. Bundesliga
Bielefeld vs Cottbus Cards
Result
Settled, final score 3-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 61.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.4% for over 2.5 to 25.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.6%. On the card count, Cottbus are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.4%, with a level count at 19.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 25.2% | 74.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
56.5%
29.5%
67.7%
41.3%
Card handicap
| Bielefeld line | Bielefeld | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| -0.5 | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| +0.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| +1.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 48.5% | 51.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Bielefeld cards per game12.0Bielefeld fouls per game0.0Cottbus cards per game11.0Cottbus fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bielefeld vs Cottbus. It tips Cottbus for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
61.0%Over 3.5 cards13.1%Any red card56.5%Bielefeld over 1.5 cards67.7%Cottbus over 1.5 cards62.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Bielefeld over 1.5 cards sits at 56.5% and Cottbus at 67.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (Bielefeld 5.6%, Cottbus 7.9%). This season Bielefeld have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Cottbus 0.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bielefeld vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 61.0% for Bielefeld vs Cottbus.
Will there be a red card in Bielefeld vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bielefeld vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cottbus to pick up more cards at 48.4%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.