2. Bundesliga
Bielefeld vs Cottbus Shots
Result
Settled, final score 3-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 60.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 72.8% for over 22.5 to 36.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.3%. On the shot count, Bielefeld are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.9%, with a level count at 5.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 36.0% | 64.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.4%
65.5%
48.8%
60.2%
41.4%
25.4%
Shot handicap
| Bielefeld line | Bielefeld | Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| -2.5 | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| -0.5 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| +0.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 42.2% | 57.8% |
This season (2026/27)
11.0Bielefeld shots per game12.0Cottbus shots per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Bielefeld.
In-depth analysis
60.9%Over 24.5 shots65.5%Bielefeld over 12.5 shots41.4%Cottbus over 12.5 shots66.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Bielefeld over 12.5 shots sits at 65.5% and Cottbus at 41.4%. This season Bielefeld have averaged 11.0 shots a game and Cottbus 12.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Bielefeld vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 60.9% for Bielefeld vs Cottbus.
Which team will have more shots in Bielefeld vs Cottbus?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bielefeld to take more shots at 63.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.