Primeira Liga
Benfica vs 
Gil Vicente Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 43.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 56.0% for over 22.5 to 22.8% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.0%. Head to head on shots, Benfica are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.5%, with a level count at 5.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 32.6% | 67.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.8% | 77.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.2%
55.6%
40.1%
44.2%
27.7%
15.8%
Shot handicap
| Benfica line | Benfica | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| -2.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| -0.5 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| +0.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.6% | 27.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 35.7% | 64.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
21.0Benfica shots per game5.8Benfica shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Benfica.
In-depth analysis
43.9%Over 24.5 shots55.6%Benfica over 12.5 shots27.7%Gil Vicente over 12.5 shots60.3%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Benfica over 12.5 shots sits at 55.6% and Gil Vicente at 27.7%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Benfica vs Gil Vicente?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 43.9% for Benfica vs Gil Vicente.
Which team will have more shots in Benfica vs Gil Vicente?
The model rates Benfica to take more shots at 66.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.