Bundesliga
Augsburg vs 
Leverkusen Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Away at 75.8%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Leverkusen are favoured at 44.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Augsburg by 1 | 17.0% |
| Augsburg by 2 | 9.7% |
| Augsburg by 3+ | 6.1% |
| Leverkusen by 1 | 19.9% |
| Leverkusen by 2 | 13.2% |
| Leverkusen by 3+ | 10.5% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
Goal handicap
| Augsburg line | Augsburg | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| -0.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| +0.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| +1.5 | 76.3% | 23.7% |
Double chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Augsburg or Leverkusen on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
66.0%Both Teams to Score
64.9%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Leverkusen are favoured at 44.3%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Augsburg 2 · 0 draws · Leverkusen 3 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Augsburg vs Leverkusen?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Augsburg vs Leverkusen at 75.8%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Augsburg vs Leverkusen?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Augsburg at 43.0% and Leverkusen at 57.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.